An ominous warning ahead of a big year
Analysis by Andrew Harding, Africa correspondent This attack is another stark reminder of how difficult it is to protect a city as large as Mogadishu against a determined militant group - al-Shabab - which has no qualms about attacking overtly civilian targets. It will also underline and fuel longstanding concerns that al-Shabab has infiltrated elements within the Somali state and its security forces, enabling it to keep conducting this kind of operation in the capital. Despite losing territory to African Union (AU) and Somali government forces in recent years, al-Shabab has proved to be a remarkably resilient organisation. It has been able to exploit the fragility of Somalia's fledgling government institutions and the centrifugal regional and clan interests, which continue to undermine the country's security and unity. Today's bloodshed carries with it an ominous warning for the year ahead, which is due to see Somalia hold crucial, but potentially destabilising, one-person one-vote elections for the first time in decades. In addition, there is enduring concern about the fate of Amisom - the 20,000-strong AU army that plays such a central role in the country's security, and which is in theory scheduled to begin winding down, to be replaced by Somalia's new national army.
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