Tesah Capital is expecting a substantial drop of between 200 and 400 basis points in the policy rate to 26-28% in the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana meeting on Monday July 28, 2025.

In its article titled: “The end of an unprecedented rate tightening cycle”, it also expects a further drop of about 100 - 200 basis points each in the policy rate in September 2025 and November 2025 meetings bringing the policy rate to about 20% - 24% by the close of the year.

“The size and speed of the drop may be moderated by the usually cautious approach taken by the Central Bank as evidenced in our analysis”, it pointed out.

It alluded that central banks across the world continued to navigate a delicate balancing act in the first half of 2025—managing inflationary pressures while supporting economic recovery amid slowing global growth.

Again, the overall direction of monetary policy has begun to shift from tightening to easing, but this transition remains uneven across regions, driven by local inflation dynamics, currency volatility, and geopolitical risks.

In North America, the Bank of Canada reduced its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 % earlier in the year, citing persistent core inflation and the need to anchor expectations. Similarly, the U.S. Federal Reserve concluded its tightening cycle at a terminal rate of 4.25%–4.50%, adopting a data-driven pause.

Tesah Capital said while internal debate persists some policymakers advocate for early rate cuts—core inflation remains above target, keeping the Fed cautious.

The highest policy rates occurred in 2023 (30%), 2024 (29%) and 2025 (28%) respectively.

Prior to 2023, the highest policy rate of 27.5% was recorded over 20 years ago in 2003. The policy rate largely dropped between 2016 and 2021 after which it largely assumed an upward trend peaking in 2023.

“We expect the declines in 2024 and 2025 to continue. Whilst inflation fell from a high of 53.6% in January 2023 to 13.7% by June 2025 representing a cumulative drop of 39.9%, the policy rate has reduced only marginally”, it concluded.