Fitch Solutions has sharply upgraded its forecast for Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus to 7.8% of GDP, citing a stronger-than-expected trade performance during the first half of the year.

The research arm of Fitch Ratings said Ghana posted a US$4.3 billion merchandise trade surplus in the first half of 2026, significantly above the US$700 million average recorded during the first halves of the previous decade.

The strong showing was largely supported by robust gold exports and increased crude oil shipments.

The performance exceeded Fitch Solutions’ earlier expectations and prompted the firm to revise its previous 5.2% of GDP forecast upwards.

“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” the firm said.

Fitch Solutions, however, expects the surplus to narrow in 2027, although it projects Ghana will retain a sizeable positive balance.

The outlook highlights the continued importance of gold and other commodity exports to Ghana’s foreign exchange earnings and external position, while the sustainability of the surplus will remain exposed to global commodity prices and export performance.