Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is projected to slow to 4.5% in 2025 from 5.7% in 2024, the African Development Bank (AfDB) has revealed in its 2025 Economic Outlook.

This is compared with its earlier forecast of 4.3%. It is however, higher than the 4.1% growth rate forecast by the International Monetary Fund and 3.9% growth rate by the World Bank.

In 2025, the Ghanaian economy is expected to grow at a rate of 4.8%.

AfDB is attributing this to activity in the mining sector, reduced fiscal consolidation momentum and higher interest rates.

It mentioned that the fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. This was supported by the ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts and public financial management reforms, including enhanced fiscal responsibility frame - work and new rules to tighten expenditure commitments.

It projected that the public debt to GDP ratio will decrease further to 66.4% in 2025 as debt restructuring with commercial creditors and revenues increase following improved tax compliance and reduced tax expenditure.

Again, the current account balance is projected at 2.6% of GDP in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, attributed to improved exports of oil and  gold  export. 

Downside Risks to Outlook to Persist

The report also mentioned that the downside risks to the outlook could emanate from climate change, possible policy reversals,  direct and indirect effects of US tariff increase, adding, “Staying on the fiscal consolidation path will help mitigate the risks”.

Ghana’s GDP growth improved to 5.7% in 2024 from 3.1% in 2023, driven by the service sector, which contributed 44% to the overall GDP growth, supported by information and communication. 

The industry sector contributed 40% to the GDP growth, resulting from improved performance of the mining and quarrying, and construction. 

Agriculture on the other hand, contributed only 10% to the growth, attributed to lower crop yield because of adverse weather conditions. 

On  the  expenditure side, growth was driven by external demand (net export) and investment.