Democrats are projected to win a special election for a Florida legislative district that includes Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, marking another upset in the president's backyard.

Democrat Emily Gregory, a first-time candidate, defeated Trump-backed Republican Jon Maples in a race for the open Florida District 87 state House seat.

The result is a reversal from 2024, when a Republican won the district by 19 percentage points.

Democrats have performed well in special elections during Trump's second term, and Gregory's victory could indicate momentum for the party heading into this year's congressional midterm elections.

"When I started this nine months ago, I obviously thought it was possible," Gregory told MSNBC on Tuesday night.

"I might have done some crazy calculus to decide that this was a flip opportunity, but it was," she later added. "And we did it. So my math worked."

Ken Martin, the chair of the Democratic National Committee celebrated the victory on X, saying voters had "sent a message".

"If Democrats can win in Trump's backyard, we sure as hell can win anywhere across the country. Onward to November!" Martin wrote.

Trump himself backed Maples, endorsing him in a Truth Social post and urging "great patriots" to vote in the special election.

Republican Congressman Byron Donalds, who is now running for governor of Florida, filmed an endorsement with Maples urging voters to choose him.

Democrats have flipped several state House seats in special elections since Trump took office at the beginning of 2025.

The midterm elections are scheduled for November, and will feature races for the US House of Representatives, a third of the US Senate, and multiple governor and state legislature races.

These elections, typically held halfway through a president's term in office, potentially serve as a referendum on the mood of the country and the strength of the president's party.