Fitch Solutions has maintained its policy rate forecast at 14.00% by year-end, before the Bank of Ghana hikes it by 200 basis points (bps) to 16.00% in 2027.

This follows the unchanged policy rate of 14% by the Bank of Ghana at the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC meeting.

According to the UK-based firm, persistent single-digit inflation drives will compel the Bank of Ghana to keep the benchmark policy rate unchanged at the final MPC meeting of 2026 in November.

“Consumer price growth has remained at multi-decade lows this year, averaging just 4.0% year-on-year, well below the 2010-2025 average of 15.7% and the BoG’s 6.0-10.0% target range. Price pressures have been contained by the lagged effects of earlier monetary tightening, favourable base effects and a stronger cedi from a year-on-year perspective”, it said in its macro insight on Ghana.

It continued that inflation has nevertheless risen from 3.2% in March 2026 to 5.0% in August 2026, and “we expect it to continue trending higher, reaching 6.8% by year-end”.

This primarily reflects elevated energy costs amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the cedi starting to weaken on a year-on-year basis.

Even so, it pointed out that inflation will remain low by Ghanaian standards and below the BoG's target midpoint through quarter 4, 2026, limiting the need for monetary tightening.

Meanwhile, with inflation moving higher, the UK-based firm see little appetite for rate cuts, making another hold in November 2026 the most likely outcome.