JoyNews Research estimates that the 450,000 barrels of light crude oil, which arrived in Ghana on Monday, May 19, 2025, are likely to last no more than 16 days. That sets June 4, 2025 as the next critical date by which new fuel must arrive or the country might experience electricity generation shortfall.

The calculation is based on precedent. In 2022, when Ghana faced a similar disruption, the Energy Ministry stated that 550,000 barrels of light crude oil would be needed to support thermal generation for 20 days.

“Because of the anticipated gas supply outages, it will be necessary to make provision for about 550,000 barrels of LCO to support the operation of about 850 MW generation capacity for a period of 20 days,” the Ministry said at the time.

Adjusting for volume, 450,000 barrels would then sustain operations for around 16 days. But two critical caveats apply.

First, the severity of the gas shortfall. If gas supplies are heavily constrained, the crude will be consumed faster and the projected 16-day window could shrink to 12 or 14 days. If the shortage is milder, the fuel could last slightly longer.

Second, the rising demand for electricity. Ghana’s power consumption in 2022 stood at 22,478 GWh. That figure is projected to increase by 14% in 2025 to 25,836 GWh.

This means that even with the same fuel supply, today’s higher demand results in a faster burn rate. That makes it unlikely the current stockpile will last the full 16 days under normal operating conditions.

Timing for the next batch of fuel is essential. Of Ghana’s 15 thermal plants, which account for 70% of total generation, 8 rely on light crude oil when gas supply is disrupted. Ensuring continuous procurement before June 4 is necessary to prevent load shedding.

Unless gas supplies are restored promptly, Ghana will need not only more barrels but also more money to secure them early and consistently, especially since liquid fuel is more expensive than natural gas.