Ghana's cocoa production is expected to fall by at least 16% in the 2026 to 2027 ​season, market regulator COCOBOD has said.

It cites weather effects, the crop's ‌natural fruit-bearing cycle and disease, adding detail to warnings farmers have raised.

The regulator, responding to questions from Reuters, said the decline reflects the likelihood ​of El Niño conditions, excessive rain in May and June ​this year, and the physiological bearing pattern of the ⁠cocoa tree, which tends to alternate between higher- and lower-yield ​years.

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COCOBOD said a low cherelle load — the number of small pods ​that survive to maturity — in the Western and Western North regions was consistent with these factors.

The regulator said the outlook in those two regions, which ​together account for more than half of Ghana's output, had ​been aggravated by the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms, ‌and ⁠an increase in illegal gold mining.

Known locally as galamsey, the illegal mining causes farms to be taken over by miners.

The projection for the 12-month season that begins in September follows warnings from ​farmers in the ​Western and Western ⁠North regions, who reported sharply reduced pod counts this season.

COCOBOD said it has taken action to ​limit losses, including rehabilitating infected farms in the ​Western North ⁠Region, expanding insecticide and fungicide spraying and reintroducing a nationwide free fertiliser distribution scheme for the 2026/27 crop year.

West Africa's cocoa outlook ⁠has ​previously been revised lower, and output ​in the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, is expected to fall by more ​than 10% next season.