A Senior Researcher at Kumasi Technical University (KTU), Prof. Smart Sarpong, has stressed that while incumbency plays a critical role in parliamentary by-elections, it does not automatically translate into victory.

Speaking on JoyNews’ AM Show ahead of Tuesday’s Akwatia by-election, he explained that unlike general elections, by-elections are conducted when the president is already known, which often strengthens the position of ruling party candidates.

“Incumbency in by-elections does have a very serious effect. By then, we know who the president is already, unlike the general elections, where we do not know who is going to make the state,” Prof. Sarpong noted.

He added that this clarity simplifies campaign messaging for ruling party candidates.

“Now we know who the president is, so campaign messages for an incumbent parliamentary candidate are so simple. I mean, we are sending somebody to get us development, and it is my father who is in the seat of the state. Give me the opportunity, and I am the best person to bring the development that we so much need in this constituency. That is a very simple message that incumbent parliamentary candidates put out,” he explained.

However, Prof. Sarpong cautioned that incumbency alone cannot guarantee electoral success if voters are not convinced about the credibility of promises.

“If the incumbent parliamentary candidate does not win—as I said on your platform last Saturday—one possible reason could be that although promises were made, and the candidate is indeed in a better position to deliver development than the opponent, voters do not trust that those assurances will be fulfilled when the mandate is given,” he said.

He further cited electoral history to illustrate that ruling parties have lost by-elections despite holding state power.

“In the past, since 1992, we have seen parties winning. A very recent one is Assin North, where the NPP was in government, the president was an NPP, but still the people went for the NDC candidate, who you would have thought was not in the incumbency,” he observed.

Prof. Sarpong concluded by calling for calm and fairness as the people of Akwatia head to the polls.

“We leave it to the people of Akwatia, and we expect a peaceful election tomorrow, and we will meet to discuss the variations that will occur,” he said.