Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, says the low voter turnout recorded in the Ayawaso East by-election should not come as a surprise, stressing that by-elections traditionally attract far fewer voters than general elections.

According to him, the reduced participation is consistent with historical patterns and is unlikely to significantly alter the overall outcome of the race.

Speaking on JoyNews on Tuesday, March 3, Mr Dankwah explained that turnout levels in by-elections rarely match those of national polls.

“Low turnout for by-elections is not unusual. You will never get the same turnout in a general election that you get in a by-election,” he said.

He noted that in many instances, turnout in by-elections ranges between 35% and 50%, adding that even a 50% participation rate would be considered high.

“If you look at the last election, what was the turnout nationally? The by-election this time will be drastically lower than that,” he stated.

The Ayawaso East by-election has drawn national attention, with polls closing and sorting and counting underway. The contest is seen as a key political test in a constituency widely regarded as a stronghold of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).

Mr Dankwah also pointed to the timing of the election, noting that the ongoing Ramadan fast may have contributed to the low morning turnout.

“The month of Ramadan is also playing an important role. Mostly in the morning, people are asleep, frankly. They are relaxing and they get out in the afternoon. So that could also affect turnout,” he explained.

Despite the lower voter participation, he said his outfit does not expect a dramatic shift in the final outcome.

“In terms of the impact of turnout overall numbers, I didn’t see it changing the outcome as to who wins,” he said, though he suggested there could be slight variations in vote margins among candidates.

Global InfoAnalytics’ data, based on a 500-sample survey in the constituency, indicates a strong partisan leaning toward the NDC.

“It is heavily partisan. The sample is about 75% NDC, and that is not different from what we saw in November 2023. When you have a heavy partisan constituency, they tend to vote the party way,” he noted.

He added that unless there is a major internal division or significant political upset, it is difficult for another candidate to swing the seat away from the NDC.

“The kind of numbers we see in Ayawaso East is too huge to swing the seat to another candidate besides the NDC,” he said.

Addressing concerns about the survey’s sample size, Mr Dankwah explained that the 500 respondents were scientifically selected to achieve a 95% confidence level with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

“The sample size is determined by the confidence level and the margin of error you want to attain. We can’t go and sample 5,000 just because there are 50,000 voters,” he clarified.

With counting ongoing, observers are watching closely to see whether the final results will align with the projections and whether the winning margin will meet expectations.