New survey predicts run-off in Dec. 7 polls

A research conducted by the Governance Research Bureau (GRB) has predicted there will be a run-off in the upcoming December 7, elections.

The new report says none of the candidates is estimated to pull more than 50 percent votes that will be cast in the first round.

This is contrary to findings in an earlier survey conducted by the Political Science Department of the University of Ghana, which predicted a win for the New Patriotic Party.

According to the research that was conducted based on an analysis of EC certified results since 1992 and the 2020 voters register, "the NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo will poll 49.19 per cent (8,389,273 votes) with NDC’s John Mahama taking 48.27 per cent (8,233,881 votes) while the others make do with 2.54 per cent (433,257 votes)."

The model used in the survey predicts that the bulk of Nana Addo’s votes will come from the Western, Ahafo, Bono, Ashanti, and Eastern regions with a performance rating of 53.45 per cent, 52.83 per cent, 56.18 per cent, 72.40 per cent, and 56.97 per cent respectively.

For John Mahama, the Western North, Volta, Oti, Upper West, Upper East, Northern, North East, Savannah and Bono East regions are projected to give him 60.16 per cent, 90.39 per cent, 66.97 per cent, 61.33 per cent, 62.55 per cent, 59.28 per cent, 49.07 per cent, 61.88 per cent and 56.59 per cent of the votes respectively.

Model used

A press release from the Bureau signed by Mohammed Affum, its Coordinator said the statistical tool used for the prediction was the Generalised Linear Model (GLM) whose dependent variable is the percentage of votes likely to be obtained by the parties with the
independent variables being the Constituency and Parties.

The Bureau said its model operates on the principle that for presidential candidates to win, they should increase their average votes in their respective strongholds while they maintain average or above average performance in their opponent’s strongholds.

In addition, they should go beyond their average performance in the swing regions of Greater Accra and Central regions, otherwise an average performance in their strongholds, as well as their opponent’s strongholds and swing regions, takes the election to the second round while below average performance signals defeat, it explained.

“While our model relies solely on analysis of quantitative data to reach its conclusions, and these are measurable, we concede that qualitative variables in the constituencies and at the national level may alter the results predicted,” the Bureau observed, adding that the results from the model should be regarded as a guide for political actors.

Other findings

The release further said the standard errors that emerged were 0.76 percent of the percentage of votes that NPP obtained, 0.75 percent for NDC and 0.32 percent for the Other parties.

It also said a 95 percent confidence interval estimate for the percentage of votes for the NPP has a lower limit of 47.69 percent (8,134,646 votes) and upper limit of 50.68 percent (8,646,900 votes).

It went on to say that "the NDC has a lower limit of 46.80 per cent (7,983,123 votes) and upper limit of 49.74 per cent (8,484,639 votes) while the other parties have a lower limit of 1.92 per cent (326,964 votes) and an upper limit of 3.16 per cent (539,550 votes)."

It further estimated that in the swing regions of Greater Accra and Central respectively, the NPP would gain 49.75 per cent and 50.16 per cent and the NDC, 49.42 per cent and 47.08 per cent.

With regards to the parliamentary elections, the Governance Research Bureau predicts that the NPP will win 107 seats with the NDC taking 112 while 56 can go either way according to the model.

The 56 constituencies are the following:

Bono: Tain.
Bono East: Nkoranza South and Pru West.
Central: Agona East, Agona West, Ajumako Enyan Essiam, Asikuma Odoben Brakwa, Awutu
Senya West, Cape Coast North, Effutu, Gomoa East, Gomoa West, KEEA, Mfantseman and
Twifu Ati Morkwa.
Eastern: Akwatia, Abirem North and Suhum.
Greater Accra: Ablekuma Central, Ablekuma South, Bortianor Ingleshie, Korle Klottey,
Krowor, Ledzokuku, Madina and Okaikwei North.
Northern: Bimbilla, Kpandai, Mion, Tatale Sanguli, Wulensi and Yendi.
North East: Bunkpurugu, Chereponi, Nalerigu, Walewale.
Savannah: Salaga South.
Oti: Akan, Krachi West, Krachi Nchumuru, Nkwanta North.
Upper East: Builsa South, Navrongo Central, Talensi, Tempane and Zebilla.
Upper West: Sissala East and Sissala West.
Western: Ellembelle, Evalue Gwira, Jomoro, Mpohor, Mpohor Wassa East, Prestea Huni
Valley, Shama and Tarkwa-Nsuaem.

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