The 10% US tariffs imposed on Ghana will pose a low risk to Ghana’s trade surplus.

“In the first nine months of 2025, we think the tariff impact could be partly mitigated by the duty-free export of non-oil goods to the US market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which will expire in September 2025”, IC Insights mentioned in its analysis of Global Trade Tremors.

However, it noted that only about 26.0% of Ghana’s export value to the US is covered under the AGOA while majority of exports are the usual primary commodities, which accounted for 85.1% of total exports in 2024.

Consequently, it foresees a potential uptick in risk to Ghana’s trade surplus, ranging between low and moderate risk, especially as the Ghanaian authorities seek to revive cocoa and crude oil output.

It however, warned that a likely softening of demand in key export markets will weigh on Ghana’s trade balance.

Ghana’s top five export destinations in 2024 included the United Arab Emirates (20.4%), Switzerland (20.2%), South Africa (12.2%), China (7.3%), and India (6.7%). These markets accounted for two-thirds of Ghana’s total export revenue.

IC Insights said the persistently strong demand conditions in these economies will be required to support Ghana’s robust trade surplus, which stood at 6.0% of Gross Domestic Product in 2024.

“Our review of the US reciprocal tariff structure indicates significant US trade barriers against Ghana’s key export markets, which could weaken investment and aggregate demand in these economies. Specifically, China’s exports to the US will attract 54.0% tariff, Switzerland (and other EU markets) will attract 20.0%.