Ghana’s oil production is expected to rebound in 2024, with an anticipated increase of 5.0% to 177,120 barrels per day (b/d).

According to Fitch Solutions, this recovery is expected to be driven by Tullow Oil's extensive drilling campaign at Jubilee and TEN.

However, a temporary plateau is foreseen after this surge until Pecan starts production, which is not expected until 2027 at the earliest.

“Our expectation for oil production remains bullish but contingent on Pecan reaching FID [Final Investment Decision] this year. Following operational setbacks in 2023 that led to a significant decline in production from the Jubilee and TEN fields, we project a rebound in oil production growth in 2024, with an anticipated increase of 5.0% to 177,120 barrels per day (b/d), it said.

“If Pecan's FID is confirmed by the end of 2024, we foresee Ghana's oil production reaching its peak at 238,980 b/d in 2029. This projection is cautious, considering the persistent historical delays in Pecan's FID over the past three years. While drilling will pause in 2024, it is slated to resume and conclude in 2025, suggesting continued investment in and development of Ghana's oil production capabilities”, it added.

Fitch Solutions continued that the complications experienced in the Jubilee and TEN fields in 2023 were particularly damaging, with production in the first half of the year dropping significantly compared to the same period in 2022 (12.0% at Jubilee and 17.5% in TEN).

“Issues such as flow assurance problems, reduced water injection, and temporary halts in well operations were to blame. Although these issues have since been resolved, they led to estimated declines of 9.5% in crude and condensate production 2023”, it mentioned.