Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire's export sectors face heightened risks, as the October-December cocoa crop development period coincides closely with the expected peak in El Niño conditions, Fitch Solutions has revealed.

According to the UK-based firm, lower rainfall and higher temperatures during key pod-development stages could reduce yields, thereby weighing on export earnings, government revenues and rural incomes.

It added that very strong conditions could disrupt crop cycles, lift food inflation, strain hydropower output and raise social unrest risks.

From a food security and inflation perspective, it pointed out that rice imports account for a substantial share of consumption across several markets, including Senegal (69%), Côte d'Ivoire (49%) and Ghana (47%), leaving these markets exposed to an El Niño-driven tightening in global rice supplies.

It disclosed in its recent report that Sub-Saharan Africa faces numerous risks.

In East Africa, Fitch Solutions pointed out that El Niño is typically associated with stronger October-December short rains, potentially resulting in flooding, crop damage, disease outbreaks and transport disruptions, reflected in its Environmental Sustainability and Governance (ESG) Country Risk data on shares of the population exposed to flooding.

At the same time, many East African economies remain highly exposed to global wheat prices given high import dependency, implying that any sustained increase in global grain prices arising from ongoing Black Sea disruptions could exacerbate inflationary pressures further, even if domestic harvests benefit from stronger rainfall.

Commodity Exporting Nations Face Additional Risk

It continued that commodity-exporting economies would face an additional risk through weaker prices, which would erode export earnings, fiscal revenues and foreign exchange inflows.

“Copper and gold exporters are especially vulnerable to more hawkish US monetary policy. Regarding crude, while we forecast prices to come in lower as the US-Iran conflict reaches a preliminary agreement, there is a risk that prices are weaker than we forecast, particularly if markets continue to react bearishly to positive developments and the Fed hikes rates anyway”, it added.