Fitch Solutions has revised Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), from 5.2% previously, as elevated gold exports will underpin external stability.

According to the UK-based firm, although it still expects the surplus to narrow in 2027, it will remain sizeable at 5.0% of GDP, substantially stronger than the average deficit of 0.9% of GDP over 2016-2025.

In its recent article on Ghana, it said elevated gold prices will continue to underpin export earnings and overall external stability. 

“Although our Commodities Team forecasts a modest decline in gold prices in 2027, reflecting stronger global growth and easing geopolitical tensions – which will reduce safe-haven demand – prices will remain elevated by historical standards. Continued central-bank buying, alongside persistent concerns about global debt sustainability and inflation, will keep gold prices elevated at an average of USD4,200/oz [Per ounce] in 2027, more than double the 2016-2025 average of USD1,830/oz”.

According to Fitch Solutions, this high price environment will continue to incentivise producers to increase output, with Ghana's gold production set to rise by 3.9% in 2027.

Given that gold accounts for roughly 40% of Ghana’s merchandise exports, it alluded that these dynamics will continue to bolster export earnings.

Weaker Cocoa Sector to Weigh on Trade Surplus

Nonetheless, it said a weaker cocoa sector dynamics will weigh on the trade surplus in 2027. 

“Our Agribusiness team forecasts cocoa output to contract by 9.1% in the 2026/27 season (October-September). Below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures linked to El Niño will disrupt the critical November-February pod development period, compounding structural challenges such as ageing tree stocks and smallholders' limited capacity to mitigate weather shocks”.

Although tighter West African supply will push spot cocoa prices higher, it said the uplift is unlikely to offset lower export volumes because Ghana forward-sells most of its crop at fixed prices six to 12 months in advance.

As a result, it forecast that the trade surplus will narrow to 9.7% of GDP in 2027 from 12.0% in 2026, though it will remain well above the 2016-2025 average of 3.3%.