Fitch Solutions has predicted an upward inflation in 2027, from an annual average of 4.7% in 2026 to 11.3% in 2027.

This will be driven by fading exchange rate support, modest fiscal loosening and strong money supply growth, with broad money supply growth already exceeding nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth by 17.1 percentage points in quarter two 2026.

In addition, the UK-based firm said the strong El Niño event, which will peak towards the end of 2026, has already begun lifting global food prices and will likely add to imported inflationary pressures in Ghana during 2027.

“As inflation accelerates and breaches the 10% mark in Q2 [quarter 2 2027], we expect the BoG to begin tightening, raising the policy rate by a cumulative 200bps [200 basis points] by year-end”, it explained.

It pointed out that a further escalation and/or more prolonged tensions in the Middle East would push energy prices higher, keeping fuel costs elevated in Ghana and adding to inflation.

This could prompt the Bank of Ghana to tighten as early as November 2026 or deliver more than the 200 basis points of hikes Fitch Solutions currently forecast.

It also forecasts that the current account surplus will narrow from 7.9% of GDP in 2026 to 5.3% in 2027, reflecting a modest decline in gold prices from US$4,400/oz to U$$4,200/oz and a 9.1% decline in cocoa production due to El Niño-related weather disruptions.

Moreover, with the Bank of Ghana explicitly targeting 15 months of import cover by 2028 – a goal Fitch Solutions views as highly ambitious and unlikely to be reached – policymakers will likely seek to maintain a positive real interest rate to support portfolio investment inflows.