One fascinating phenomenon I encountered in project foresight is the term ‘black swan’. This term refers to an external event or process that an organisation fails to anticipate or see coming its way. That is, by far, my most accurate description of the sweeping freeze on foreign aid and near-total cessation of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) activities worldwide. Imagine waking up to the news that thousands of lifesaving programs- ranging from hunger relief and health to disaster response had suddenly stopped.

On January 25, 2025, such was the shock as the United States announced an abrupt freeze on USAID funding, leaving countless communities stranded. Over 1,000 USAID staff and contractors were dismissed overnight, and major humanitarian efforts ground to a halt. Two months later, the world is still reeling as the global development ecosystem struggles to adapt. Despite the crisis’s bitter aftertaste, I believe every dark cloud has a silver lining. Here are a few emerging rays of light I see through the dark clouds.

Government action. The near-total suspension of USAID funding has prompted various government actions to mitigate the effects on their developmental programs. For example, emerging reports indicate that the Australian government has announced plans to allocate three-quarters of its foreign aid budget, $3.22 billion, to neighbouring regions such as Asia and the Pacific Islands starting July 1, 2025. In Africa, the government of Kenya plans to allocate $225 million to support programs that have been affected by the freeze.

Similarly, the president of Ghana has directed the finance minister to address a $156 million shortfall that resulted from the suspension. Finally, while the European Union acknowledges that it cannot fully compensate for the funding gap, it has allocated $1.9 billion to its humanitarian budget, with $510 million earmarked for Africa. These, along with other alternative funding efforts such as private sector partnerships, are being structured to bridge the funding gap.

Diaspora support. In times of deep crises, diaspora communities have provided support to alleviate burdens in their home countries. In the wake of USAID funding cuts, similar conversations have emerged around how diaspora bonds can be leveraged to bridge funding gaps in affected countries. These government-backed securities, if managed with utmost transparency, provide an untapped financial resource that can bolster development efforts in education, healthcare and infrastructure. Here’s how they work: A government issues bonds, the diaspora community buys the bonds, and the funds are used for development programs.

Later, the government pays back investors with interest. By this, diaspora communities give back to their affected home countries and demonstrate a sense of patriotism. They also make a good investment, which can offer stable rates and better returns than regular savings accounts. Countries like Israel and India have successfully raised billions through these bonds. However, trust issues have plagued attempts in Ethiopia and Nigeria and hindered similar results, showing that transparency is key. Diaspora bonds, if managed well, could be a game-changing solution for nations struggling with USAID cuts. Beyond financial solutions, global solidarity has also emerged as a powerful force in this crisis.

Global humanitarianism and solidarity efforts. In the wake of the funding freeze, a wave of solidarity and global support has washed over the development world, and it is extraordinary. Never have I seen a global push to drive employment of displaced individuals and contractors like what was evident in the past few weeks. The world expressed the true sense of humanitarianism by creating job boards, sharing opportunities, hosting online webinars and recommending deserving colleagues for new positions. This crisis, though painful, has shown that true humanitarianism goes beyond donor/foreign aid- it is a collective force.

Reinvention and re-adjustment. For years, many development professionals operated on autopilot, secure in their roles. This crisis has forced a reset. The ‘shake up’ has led to the rousing of individuals to pursue online visibility on various platforms. Many have had cause to upgrade their skills to become more competitive and enhance their appeal to many jobs. While unplanned this evolution may ultimately strengthen the development sector.

Finally, there has been an intentional push by development organisations globally to seek alternative funding sources to support their work. Whether through aggressive fundraising, advocating to the private sector and philanthropic organisations or increasing overall visibility and awareness towards project activities, organisations are choosing to evolve rather than die. Daily, I see new project activities in agriculture, health, gender equity and climate showcased on various platforms on an increased scale, and I love it. Visibility increases reach, reach increases support and support ensures sustained impact.

To all affected by the crisis, we are bleeding, but we are healing, and together we will rise stronger. If you’ve been hit harder than others, hope is on the way. But hope alone is not enough. We must act - share solutions, push for new funding models, and demand accountability from our leaders as well as ourselves. In the end, our resilience, not foreign aid, will define our future.

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The writer, Derrick Holdbrook, is an International Development Analyst