Introduction

Parts III started the analysis of revenue mobilization while the ensuing tables (Part IV) show that, at its peak of 13.5 per cent in 2015, the tax effort fell below the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) average of 17.5-to-18.0 per cent of GDP. Estimates show that the ratio will decline further for five or more years. Part V to Part VII will focus on expenditure and broader fiscal outcomes.

Among others, the decline from the SSA average, achieved previously, is the result of expansion in the denominator, due to:

– GDP rebasing in 2010 and 2018, resulting in increases of 60 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively; and

– Petroleum: the start and expansion of crude oil and gas production, exports, and processing (for domestic power consumption)—now up to 3 oil fields and growth reaching peaks of 14 per cent (2012) and 8 per cent (2017).

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