Fitch Solutions has categorically stated that the opposition National Democratic Congress will win the December general elections.

This is the third time it has made this bold prediction.

It, however, pointed out that the government would boost expenditure leading up to the December 2024 general election to enhance its chances of securing victory.

 “We expect the government to boost expenditure leading up to the December 2024 general election to enhance its chances of securing victory. We remain of the view that the opposition National Democratic Congress will win the election”, it disclosed in its latest Country Report on Ghana dated September 19, 2024.

“Indeed, in Q2 [quarter 2, 2024], the government raised public sector wages by 31.0% year-on-year in nominal terms and tripled subsidies on petrol products, a move that aligns with Ghana’s historical trend of higher spending during election cycles. This will boost household purchasing power and support consumer spending over second-half of 2024”, it mentioned.

“All told, we forecast that private consumption will grow by 8.5% in 2024 and add 7.2pp to headline economic growth”, it added.

Risks To Outlook

It continued that the risks to Ghana’s economic growth outlook are tilted to the downside.

“In September 2024, the opposition National Democratic Congress staged nationwide protests alleging irregularities in the voter roll ahead of the December election. While our core view remains that the vote will be conducted peacefully, consistent with Ghana's recent democratic history, prolonged protests or the outbreak of large-scale violence would disrupt commercial activities and reduce consumer and business confidence, ultimately leading to lower economic growth than we currently forecast”.

Additionally, it said an escalation in the conflict in the Middle East—resulting in higher global oil prices—would trigger a resurgence in inflation and cloud Ghana's domestic demand outlook.