Ghanaians who stayed away from the 2024 general elections are tilting strongly toward the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

That is according to Global Info Analytics lead pollster Mussa Dankwah, whose outfit released its March 2026 tracking poll on Tuesday.

The survey examined the voting intentions of 2024 absentee voters across multiple demographic groups — including education, religion, ethnicity, and income levels.

“The overarching conclusion is clear: the pool of voters who stayed home in 2024 is not neutral,” Mr Dankwah said.

“It leans NDC, and its activation in 2028 would compound the NPP’s existing deficit rather than offset it.”

The findings suggest that when these non-voters are factored into projections, NDC contenders — particularly Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson and former General Secretary Johnson Asiedu Nketia — gain ground across nearly all categories. In contrast, support for the NPP’s likely flagbearer, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, either stagnates or declines slightly.

Among voters with tertiary education, including absentee voters expands Dr Forson’s lead over Dr Bawumia from 26 percentage points to 29 points. A similar pattern emerges among voters with no formal education, where his advantage increases from 11 points to 13 points.

The trend also cuts across religious lines. Among Christian voters, Dr Forson’s lead rises from 19 points to 22 points when non-voters are included. The shift is even more pronounced among non-religious voters, where his margin jumps sharply from 8 points to 18 points.

However, the data points to some exceptions.

Within Islamic communities — particularly among Shia and Tijaniyya Muslims — both NDC candidates appear to lose ground regardless of whether absentee voters are included. Analysts say this may reflect Dr Bawumia’s longstanding appeal among Muslim voters, especially in northern Ghana.

Ethnic breakdowns in the poll show modest gains for the NDC among Akan, Ga-Adangme, and Ewe voters when absentee voters are included, with the Ewe bloc remaining the party’s strongest base. But among Mande voters, Dr Forson’s numbers dip into negative territory once non-voters are factored in — an outlier the poll did not fully explain.

The poll adds another layer to the evolving political landscape following the December 2024 general election, where President John Mahama of the NDC defeated Dr Bawumia by a decisive margin of 56% to 41%.