President Macky Sall has opted to delay Senegal's scheduled presidential election on 25 February 2024, citing concerns over electoral issues that could potentially escalate disputes.

This move has already prompted one opposition coalition to declare their intention to challenge the decision through legal channels.

The backdrop for Sall's decision involves the constitutional council's recent ruling in January to exclude several prominent candidates from the electoral list, intensifying discontent surrounding the electoral process.

In response to the president's announcement, protests ensued, leading the Senegalese government to impose restrictions on internet access, citing the dissemination of 'hateful' messages. Subsequently, Senegal's parliament voted to reschedule the presidential election for 15 December, 2024, amidst public outcry that even prompted some opposition lawmakers to block proceedings.

ANALYSIS

Senegal, a rare exception to coups in Africa since its independence in 1960, is currently at a critical juncture with the suspension of the 25 February elections and restricted internet access.

While the country’s history of successfully alternating political power and a disciplined military have contributed to its democratic stability, recent events suggest potential challenges that could jeopardise this standing. Despite Senegal’s resilient military, past crises in 1968 and violent riots in 2021 and 2023 highlight that it is not cocooned from political instability.

Sall’s move to stall this month’s election has been years in the making, with the most notable actions being the engineered legal battles of Ousmane Sonko, the opposition’s most formidable candidate. Sonko stands accused of rape and fomenting insurrection.

Already barred from contesting by the constitutional courts, Sonko had found himself in jail, with his party having to put forth a replacement candidate. In early 2023, Sall stated he would not run for a third term.

However, the postponement of the elections and the clampdown on both the opposition and the internet restrictions all point to a continuation of his tenure by other means. With this move, Senegal, which hitherto had been a beacon of democratic stability in West Africa, enters into the unenviable league of West African states imperilled by political instability engineered by sit-tight presidents.

In places like Guinea and Gabon in Central Africa, this has led to military takeovers, and the extra-constitutional actions of President Ibrahim Boubackar Keita led to his ouster by the military. Recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Chad highlight a worrying trend of military interventions. Although Senegal’s military has largely stayed away from the political scene, its existence in a very troubled neighbourhood puts it at risk of a coup.

The concerns extend beyond Senegal, as several other West African countries grapple with questions of legitimacy surrounding their elected leaders. Accusations of flawed elections, voter suppression, and limited political space cast a shadow over the democratic credentials of some governments.

Senegal’s unique position as a regional powerhouse with strong ties to France adds another layer of complexity. As France’s influence in the ECOWAS bloc wanes, Senegal’s decision to delay elections could create geopolitical tensions.

Former French-aligned countries, such as Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, shifting towards Russia and China, may reshape regional dynamics. Beyond security and political instability, Senegal is grappling with economic challenges. As one of the West African countries under an IMF programme, the decision to postpone elections could further strain the economy.

The current politico-economic landscape demands a collective effort to strengthen democratic institutions across West Africa. This includes: upholding the rule of law and ensuring free and fair elections; addressing the root causes of discontent, such as poverty and inequality; promoting regional cooperation and dialogue to address security challenges and supporting civil society and independent media as crucial actors in holding governments accountable.

In the upcoming elections this year, 6 West African nations, including Senegal, are expected to go to the polls. However, two Francophone countries, Mali and Senegal, have indefinitely postponed their elections. Mali, under military leadership and known for coups since the pandemic, contrasts with Senegal, facing a critical threat to its democracy for the first time.

At the dying embers of the year, Ghana, renowned as one of West Africa's most peaceful countries, will also hold elections for a new president and some 275 members of parliament. Guinea Bissau, despite experiencing two attempted coups, is also preparing for presidential elections.

Shifting focus to Ghana, a key ECOWAS democracy, the nation's democratic landscape is being marred by an alarming increase in reported attacks on journalists, with at least 8 incidents in less than a year, 3 of which occurred in the months of  October 2023. This trend underscores a troubling suppression of journalism.

Journalists in Ghana face mounting pressures, evident in the nation's deteriorating press freedom ranking. The increasing intolerance of government authorities towards criticism has compelled many journalists to practice self-censorship to safeguard their jobs and personal security.

Compounding this issue is the substantial ownership of a third of Ghana's media outlets by politicians or individuals closely associated with leading political parties. This ownership influence perpetuates the production of partisan content, significantly undermining the neutrality and credibility of news dissemination.

Ghana, proud of its political stability during its fourth republic, grapples with challenges as politically exposed individuals encroach upon media ownership and regulation, eroding the integrity that once defined the nation's media landscape. This erosion gradually affects the purity of Ghana's democracy, unbroken since 1992. Addressing these concerns is crucial to preserving democratic principles and stability in Ghana.

Senegal’s situation serves as a stark reminder that democracy is not a given, but a fragile process that requires constant vigilance and commitment.

The global community will keenly observe how Senegal, and by extension, Africa, navigates this critical period and whether it can continue to stand resilient in the face of mounting pressures. While the road ahead may be challenging, collective efforts remain crucial to ensure that West Africa emerges from these crossroads and upholds its democratic aspirations.

In 2024, West African democracies face a crucial test of resilience following a wave of coups in the recent past. As six member nations prepare for elections, the strength and stability of their democratic institutions will be put to the ultimate test. Mali, having experienced military coups, and Senegal, encountering a significant threat to its democratic stability, are emblematic of the challenges faced by the region. The postponement of elections in these nations raises concerns about the health of their democratic processes. Ghana, traditionally recognized as one of West Africa's peaceful countries, is not exempt from the trials. A surge in attacks on journalists and the influence of politically connected individuals in media ownership pose challenges to the nation's democratic fabric. With at least 2 attempted coups, Guinea Bissau is not exempt as it takes a bold step to hold a presidential election this year. In fact, the erosion of civil and political liberties, crackdowns on opposition figures, internet blackouts, and a general clampdown on civic space in Senegal contribute to a concerning democratic backsliding in the region.