The Executive Director of the Africa Centre for Energy Policy (ACEP), Benjamin Boakye, has warned that fuel prices in Ghana could increase if the escalating Middle East conflict persists and pushes global crude oil prices higher.

Speaking in an interview on Joy FM's Top Story on Monday, March 2, he noted that international oil prices have already surged by nearly eight percent in recent days, reflecting market anxiety over the tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

“It would be ideal if the conflict does not escalate because we have already seen almost an eight percent jump in international oil prices. If it intensifies, you can expect prices to go even higher,” he cautioned.

According to him, while Ghana may not face immediate fuel supply shortages, the country remains exposed to fluctuations in international benchmark prices, which directly influence local pump prices.

Mr. Boakye explained that fuel pricing in Ghana operates on a pass-through system, meaning increases in global crude prices are typically transferred to consumers unless government intervenes — particularly on the tax component of the pricing formula.

“Industry players will seek to recover their costs. Unless there is some form of intervention from government on taxes, increases will be passed on to consumers. But even government has limits when prices rise beyond a certain margin,” he said.

He stressed that the trajectory of the conflict remains unpredictable, making it difficult to forecast how long current price pressures could persist.

“It is largely in the hands of the US, Israel and Iran. We do not know the strategy or how this will unfold. Many believed negotiations were ongoing, and suddenly, we are seeing renewed hostilities. That uncertainty is what makes the market nervous,” he added.

Mr. Boakye noted that key indicators to monitor in the coming weeks include sustained movements in global crude oil benchmarks and any potential production adjustments by major oil-producing nations aimed at stabilising the market.

While expressing hope for a swift diplomatic resolution, he acknowledged growing concerns that prolonged instability in the Middle East could exert broader pressure on the global economy, with ripple effects on inflation and transport costs in Ghana.

For now, he said, de-escalation remains the most critical factor in preventing further strain on fuel prices and protecting consumers from additional economic hardship.