Ghana’s exchange rate instability is driven more by structural leakages in the extractive sector than by weak export performance, Joe Jackson, Chief Executive Officer of Dalex Finance, has said.

He argued that persistent misdiagnosis of the problem had led to policy responses that failed to address the underlying causes of currency volatility.

Delivering the 2026 Dean of Business School Lecture Series at the University of Professional Studies, Accra, Mr Jackson said the cedi depreciated by nearly 71 per cent between 2016 and 2024, before appreciating by about 40 per cent between 2024 and 2025.

He described this as “a story of dangerous volatility that were symptomatic of unresolved structural weaknesses.”

Mr Jackson challenged the view that the cedi’s weakness was due to low export performance, noting that Ghana had recorded trade surpluses in recent years.

“The hard truth is that Ghana earns foreign exchange, but does not retain it,” he said.

Mr Jackson explained that although the country generated substantial foreign exchange from gold, oil and cocoa exports, much of the inflow exited through service imports, profit repatriation, external debt servicing and capital flight.

In 2024 alone, Ghana recorded a trade surplus of about US$5.1 billion but lost close to US$8 billion through such leakages.

“In simple terms, we earn the dollars and then we send them back out,” he said.

Mr Jackson said the gold sector illustrated the challenge, noting that although Ghana exported about US$11.9 billion worth of gold, less than half of that value was retained domestically.

He compared Ghana with countries such as South Africa and Botswana, which, despite lower export volumes, retained a greater share of resource value through stronger domestic participation and value addition.

Mr Jackson welcomed the introduction of the Ghana Gold Board as a step towards improving value retention in the gold sector, noting that it centralised purchases, aligned local prices with international benchmarks and formalised artisanal mining.

Early results, he said, pointed to a potential 75 per cent rise in export value and more than a two‑fold increase in contributions from artisanal mining.

While commending the initiative, Mr Jackson cautioned that it addressed only part of the broader challenge.

“The major leakages service imports, profit repatriation and debt servicing remain largely untouched,” he said.

Mr Jackson also warned that high domestic inflation continued to undermine currency stability, noting that inflation, which peaked at about 54 per cent in 2022, remained elevated relative to major trading partners through 2024.

He said persistent inflation eroded the cedi’s purchasing power, encouraged imports, increased interest rates and discouraged long‑term holding of the local currency.

Mr Jackson pointed out that that sustainable exchange rate stability required both external and internal discipline.

Externally, he called for deliberate policies to retain more value from the extractive sector through deeper local participation, stronger domestic supply chains and value addition.

Domestically, Mr Jackson stressed the need for fiscal discipline and prudent monetary policy to curb inflation.

He urged policymakers to shift focus from increasing exports to retaining more of the foreign exchange the country earned, describing currency volatility as a reflection of weak economic discipline.