A new survey of New Patriotic Party (NPP) members shows Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia as the overwhelming favourite for the party's flagbearership, commanding majority support more than a month before delegates cast their ballots.

The poll, conducted by Governance Lab Africa in November-December 2025, found 51.8% of the 340 party members surveyed would vote for Dr Bawumia if the primary were held today.

He holds a formidable lead over his nearest competitors, Dr Bryan Acheampong (20.6%) and Kennedy Agyapong (18.8%).

“Dr Mahamudu Bawumia emerges as the clear frontrunner,” the survey’s executive summary stated, noting his significant advantage. The report also highlighted that support is intensely firm, with a remarkable 84.4% of respondents saying their choice is firmly decided.

However, the pollsters carefully noted a critical caveat: the survey captures the sentiment of general party members, not the specific delegates who will actually vote in the crucial January 2026 primary election. This means the delegate's verdict could differ based on internal party dynamics and lobbying.

The survey revealed that the race is being driven by deep economic anxieties and a pragmatic focus on winning power back in the 2028 general election. Nearly half of the respondents (46.5%) identified job creation and youth unemployment as the single biggest issue for the next election.

“Electability concerns dominate candidate evaluation,” the report found, with 44.1% of members saying a candidate’s ability to win the 2028 general election is the most important quality they seek.

The sample, which was predominantly male (87.9%) and highly educated (92.9% with tertiary education), also showed limited active engagement with the primary process so far. About 73.8% of respondents admitted they were not closely following news about the contest.

With the primary scheduled for next month, the campaigns of Dr Acheampong and Mr Agyapong face the steep challenge of closing a more than 30-percentage-point gap in a race where most minds appear made up.