Ghana's gold production could increase by around 6.25% to approximately 5.1 million ounces in 2025, up from last year's record output of 4.8 million ounces, the Chamber of Mines in Africa's top gold-producing nation said on Friday.

High output has been driven by strong production from artisanal mining and the introduction of new large-scale operations, countering a decline at the country's ageing mines.

The 2025 forecast published in the chamber's annual report follows Ghana's stronger-than-expected performance in 2024, when total gold output rose 19.3%, cementing its position as Africa's top gold producer, ahead of South Africa and Mali.

The surging prices of the precious metal have increased Ghana's export revenue and strengthened its cedi currency, boosting the country's recovery from its worst economic crisis in a generation. Ghana is also a cocoa producer and oil exporter.

"We project gold output to range between 4.4 and 5.1 million ounces, buoyed by increased contributions from Newmont's Ahafo South Mine and Shandong's Namdini Mine," Chamber of Mines President Michael Akafia said at an annual gathering in the capital Accra.

ARTISANAL BOOM

Last year's gold output was driven by a record 39.4% contribution from small-scale miners whose operations Akafia said face significant uncertainty and potential disruption from ongoing regulatory changes.

Ghana's new government has formed the GoldBod to streamline gold purchases from small-scale miners, increase their earnings, and reduce the impact of smuggling. It has also removed a withholding tax on local gold purchases.

The Ghana National Association of Small-Scale Miners said the new measures will help the sector beat its 2024 gold output.

"We're looking at about 30% to 40% more production than the previous year," the general secretary of the group, Godwin Armah, told Reuters.

"The removal of the withholding tax has helped reduce smuggling significantly," he added.

The Chamber of Mines said its base-case scenario shows small-scale gold output ranging between 1.5 million and two million ounces in 2025, compared to 1.9 million ounces in 2024.

Ghana's booming artisanal mining sector, of which 70% to 80% is unlicensed, is under increased scrutiny due to resulting harms to the environment and cocoa farms.

Several major gold mines, including Perseus' Edikan Mine, Gold Fields' Damang and Tarkwa operations, and Zijin's Akyem Mine, are expected to see production declines that could stagnate the sector's output and slow overall growth, Akafia said.

Ghana needs a stronger pipeline of gold exploration projects to ensure sustainable production in the future, he told Reuters in an interview.

For other minerals, the chamber projects manganese production to rise to 8 million tonnes in 2025, from 5 million tonnes last year. It also expects bauxite will reach two million tonnes from a record 1.7 million tons in 2024. And it forecasts diamond output to climb to 400,000 carats in 2025 from 330,000 carats last year.