Accounting firm PwC has warned that Ghana’s economy remains exposed to commodity price volatility despite signs of renewed stability.

PwC also cautioned that global financial tightening and climate shocks could weigh heavily on the economy if Ghana does not strengthen its shock absorbers.

The concerns were captured in PwC’s 2026 West Africa Economic Outlook, which noted that “inflation, foreign exchange and fiscal balances improved markedly in 2025, but Ghana remains exposed to commodity price volatility, climate shocks, and global financial tightening.”

PwC said Ghana’s recent recovery has been driven largely by rising gold prices, but warned that any disruption could trigger renewed pressure on the economy.

It maintained that “reserves and FX stability should remain supportive in 2026, though dependence on gold prices heightens terms-of-trade risks.”

PwC added that “stability should persist in 2026, but buffers will be tested by external shocks, requiring continued policy discipline and contingency planning.”

The report also pointed to Ghana’s external resilience, noting that commodities and remittances remain central to foreign exchange stability.

“External resilience anchored on commodities and remittances: gold, cocoa, and oil exports alongside diaspora inflows support FX stability but expose the economy to terms-of-trade risks,” PwC said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised similar concerns in its staff report about Ghana’s vulnerability to external shocks and the risk that current stability could erode.

Cedi’s Outlook and Sustaining Gains

The cedi ended 2025 on a strong note, appreciating by more than 40% against the US dollar.

PwC attributed the currency’s performance to improved foreign exchange inflows from gold, cocoa and crude exports, supported by stronger reserve buffers that enabled targeted interventions by the Bank of Ghana.

However, the firm warned that the cedi may come under renewed pressure in 2026.

“The cedi is expected to face renewed depreciation pressures in 2026, reflecting structural export constraints and competitiveness considerations, although policy buffers and FX inflows should help limit excessive volatility,” the report said.

PwC also noted that the exchange rate is expected to remain broadly stable in 2026, supported by export receipts, remittances and improved reserves, but still vulnerable to external shocks.

The report added that interest rates could ease gradually in 2026 as disinflation continues, but the pace will remain cautious to protect policy credibility and financial stability.

Inflation Rate Outlook

PwC said it expects inflation to remain within the single-digit range, stabilising around the central bank’s target.

It noted that Ghana’s inflation may settle near the Bank of Ghana’s target of 8% ± 2% (6% to 10%), supported by anchored expectations, contained imported inflation and sustained FX stability.

However, PwC warned that risks remain tied to global commodity price movements and election-related pressures.

PwC said this could create space for cautious policy easing, but external shocks and the need to protect credibility will remain key constraints.

“Scope exists for cautious easing in 2026, supporting credit and growth, but policy will remain constrained by FX stability and credibility concerns,” it stated.

Debt Dynamics

PwC said Ghana’s debt outlook could improve further if restructuring efforts and fiscal discipline continue to rebuild confidence and reduce refinancing and interest costs.

It added that reforms in the domestic gold sector could help support the cedi and limit the growth of foreign-currency-denominated public debt.

Growth Outlook for Ghana

PwC projected that sustained reforms to strengthen macroeconomic stability and boost investment could support expansion in Ghana’s industrial and services sectors, as credit access improves.

The report said Ghana’s recovery is expected to be led by non-oil sectors, particularly services, agriculture and export activity, although weak domestic demand and constrained public investment may limit upside.

“Gradual growth recovery led by non-oil sectors: services, agriculture, and export activities drive recovery, while weak domestic demand and constrained public investment cap upside,” PwC said.

PwC projected real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2026, supported by strong performance in agriculture and services.