Dr Mahamudu Bawumia continues to command strong loyalty from New Patriotic Party (NPP) supporters who skipped the 2024 elections, but struggles significantly among the floating voters needed to win back power in 2028, a new Global Info Analytics poll has revealed.

The March 2026 tracking survey, released Tuesday, highlights what pollster Mussa Dankwah describes as a “base-versus-swing voter problem” for the NPP. This dynamic could shape the party’s prospects in the next general election.

“The data points to a base-versus-swing voter problem for the NPP — one that the absentee voter pool, if mobilised, would sharpen rather than resolve,” Mr Dankwah said.

The poll analysed the preferences of voters who did not participate in the December 2024 elections, breaking them down by party affiliation across two projected matchups: Dr Bawumia versus Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, and Dr Bawumia versus former NDC General Secretary Johnson Asiedu Nketia.

Among NPP-aligned voters who stayed home in 2024, Dr Bawumia maintains overwhelming support. He secures 77% against Dr Forson, who garners 11% from that group. Against Mr Asiedu Nketia, Dr Bawumia’s dominance is even stronger, polling 83% compared to 8%.

NDC supporters who did not vote in 2024 show similar party loyalty in the opposite direction. Dr Forson draws 77% among NDC absentee voters, while Mr Asiedu Nketia records 74% within the same bloc.

However, the picture shifts sharply among floating voters — those without declared party affiliation who also skipped the 2024 polls.

In this group, Dr Bawumia trails both NDC contenders. Dr Forson leads him by 12 percentage points, polling 47% to 35%, while Mr Asiedu Nketia edges him 38% to 36% in a tighter contest.

The survey also shows mixed results for Dr Bawumia among voters who either support smaller parties or declined to disclose their affiliation.

He secures 29% in both matchups within this group, compared to 47% for Dr Forson and 35% for Mr Asiedu Nketia.