The government is expected to record a total revenue of GH¢225.9 billion, about 16.0% of Gross Domestic Product in 2025.

This will be slightly below the government's revised downward target of GH¢226.5 billion.

According to a leading financial and market research firm, IC Research, an expected boost in tax revenue in the 4^th quarter of 2025 will partly close the gap observed in nine months of 2025 as year-end seasonality drives imports and consumer spending.

In its assessment of the 2026 Budget, it said, “Our assessment of the 9M2025 [9 months] outturn revealed continued risk of revenue underperformance with a 4.7% (GH¢7.7 billion) shortfall recorded against the period target. However, the authorities exhibited disciplined execution of spending plans by suppressing total expenditure (commitment basis) below the budget by 13.8% (GH¢28.6 billion). This supported a considerable fiscal adjustment, equivalent to 5.5% of GDP in 9M2025 and propelled the primary surplus to 1.6% of GDP [Gross Domestic Product], substantially outpacing the period target surplus of 0.6%”.

It continued that the petroleum and other tax revenue was partly constrained by the stronger cedi, while non-tax revenue outperformed. Total revenue and grants were estimated at GHS154.9bn in nine months of 2025, falling short of the authorities’ target by GH¢7.7 billion (4.7%). “The revenue underperformance reflects a broad-based shortfall across tax revenue lines, with direct taxes (-5.4%) and import duty (-11.9%) posting the widest negative deviation from target”.

“We attribute the weaker-than-expected tax revenue outturn partly to the sharp appreciation of the cedi in 2025, which compressed the cedi-equivalent of FX-linked revenues as well as lingering administrative issues at Ghana’s ports”, it added.  However, non-tax revenue (GH¢22.7bn) outperformed the target by 13.0% in nine months of 2025 mainly helped by improved collections by Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs