IC Research, one of the leading market research firm, is forecasting a modest uptick in inflation for March 2026 as supply-chain disruptions and other cost pressures re-emerge.

It is forecasting a 60 basis points uptick in annual inflation to 3.9% in March 2026, while the sequential rate stays flat at 0.8% month-on-month.

“We expect further push from the belated pass-through of the 1Q2026 [first quarter 2026] utility tariff hike while the Middle East war pushes Brent crude oil above US$83.0 per barrel, higher than the US$ 74.7 per barrel peak seen in March 2025. We believe that higher global energy prices through March 2026 will elevate price inflation for gas & other fuels and trim the transport deflation with upside risk for nonfood and overall inflation”, it disclosed in its analysis of the February 2026 Inflation.

Additionally, it pointed out that the onset of planting season, compounded by disruptions to cross-border supply of tomatoes, could lift vegetables & tubers from deflation territory and pose upside risk to food and overall inflation.

“We believe the February 2026 inflation data suggest that Ghana’s disinflation trend is near the finish line and the authorities have now entered the decisive phase of sustaining price stability as the 18 March 2026 MPC [Monetary Policy Committee] decision approaches. Beneath the encouraging headline, we observed an important nuance in the inflation dynamics”, it explained.

For the first time since January 2025, it said that annual food and non-food inflation rates moved in opposite direction, supporting IC Research’s view that an end to the disinflation trend is imminent, especially as cost and supply-chain risks re-emerge.

February Inflation

Inflation declined to 3.3% in February for the 14^th consecutive month.

Food inflation, however, dropped sharper in February 2026 compared to the January descent, easing by 150 basis points to 2.4% year-on-year with the sequential rate plummeting to 0.2% month-on-month.

Non-food inflation surprisingly increased by 30 basis points to 4.0% year-on-year, reverting above food inflation in February 2026, following the convergence in the prior month.

IC Research observed an elevation in price pressures within the non-food components as the number of divisions which posted disinflation reduced from ten to seven while divisions with inflation upsurge increased from two to five.