The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has forecasted total global revenue loss of $29.3 billion to the aviation Industry.
According to a statement by IATA, its initial assessment of the impact of the Novel Coronavirus 2019 outbreak (COVID-19) shows a potential 13% full-year loss of passenger demand for carriers in the Asia-Pacific region.
This according to IATA would translate into a $27.8 billion revenue loss in 2020 for carriers in the Asia-Pacific region—the bulk of which would be borne by carriers registered in China, with $12.8 billion loss in the China domestic market alone.
Meanwhile, carriers outside Asia-Pacific are forecast to bear a revenue loss of $1.5 billion, assuming the loss of demand is limited to markets linked to China.
This would bring total global lost revenue to $29.3 billion and represent a 4.7% hit to global demand.
The Director-General and CEO of IATA Alexandre de Juniac said “The sharp downturn in demand as a result of COVID-19 will have a financial impact on airlines—severe for those particularly exposed to the China market. We estimate that global traffic will be reduced by 4.7% by the virus, which could more than offset the growth we previously forecast and cause the first overall decline in demand since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09.”
He added, “And that scenario would translate into lost passenger revenues of $29.3 billion. Airlines are making difficult decisions to cut capacity and in some cases routes. Lower fuel costs will help offset some of the lost revenue. This will be a very tough year for airlines.”
In December, IATA forecast global Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) growth of 4.1%, so this loss would more than eliminate expected growth this year, resulting in a 0.6% global contraction in passenger demand for 2020.
However, IATA says it is premature to estimate what this revenue loss will mean for global profitability.
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