Two UK-based firms, The Economist Intelligence Unit and Fitch Solutions have predicted victory for former President John Mahama in the 2024 presidential elections.

According to the EIU, Ghana is likely to experience a transfer of power from the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) to the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), largely driven by declining living standards, limited job opportunities, and poor public services.

“Numerous major African countries will hold presidential and legislative elections in 2024, including Algeria, Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa and Tunisia. Incumbent regimes are expected to prevail in most of the elections, but there is a heightened risk of reduced parliamentary majorities and much more challenging governing conditions”.

“Ghana is likely to experience a transfer of power from the ruling New Patriotic Party to the opposition National Democratic Congress, largely driven by declining living standards, limited job opportunities and poor public services”, the EIU pointed out.

Fitch Solutions, on the other hand, alluded that the ruling NPP is unlikely to remain in power with former President Mahama expected to win the swing regions against Vice President, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.

A careful look at the Bar Chart by the UK-based firm shows that the former President will win the five northern regions by nearly 60% as against a little above 30% by the Vice President. In the swing regions which include the Greater Accra and Central regions, the former President is expected to get about 47% of the votes, whilst Dr. Bawumia will get nearly 30%. In the Akan regions including Ashanti and Eastern regions, President Mahama is also ahead with about 34% as against Dr. Bawumia’s 33%.

A Senior Analyst for Sub-Saharan Africa at Fitch Solutions, Mike Kruninger said his outfit believes the opposition NDC is best placed to win the 2024 Presidential elections

“I think at this point we believe that the opposition party NDC is best placed to win the election”.

“Multiple surveys have shown that the economy will be the most important point for voters in the upcoming election which will give the ruling New Patriotic Party a disadvantage looking at the fact that the recent economic downturn happened under the NPP leadership.  So if you look at recent polls, you’ll see that NDC’s leader John Mahama is not only leading in areas favoring the NDC but also in Akan regions which usually move towards the NPP”

“So for now, it’s likely the NDC will manage to secure a majority in the December 2024 elections”, he concluded.