A latest survey by Africa Policy Lens (APL) on the race to become the NDC’s next flagbearer for the 2028 elections has revealed a tightly contested race, with no clear frontrunner.

The survey, conducted across all 276 constituencies nationwide among NDC faithful, shows a close contest between the party’s National Chairman, Johnson Asiedu Nketia, and Chief of Staff Julius Debrah.

According to the findings, Asiedu Nketia polled 31.9%, while Julius Debrah secured 30.1%, a margin the APL described as “near-even”.

“Current support levels show a near-even division between the two leading candidates,” the report said.

“Hon. Johnson Asiedu Nketia leads with 31.9%, while Hon. Julius Debrah follows closely with 30.1%. This narrow margin of less than two percentage points indicates that the race is not only competitive but also structurally balanced at the top.”

The report added that while both candidates have built strong support bases, neither has been able to break away or consolidate a dominant coalition.

“The support landscape is therefore polarised but not settled,” it noted.

In another part of the survey, which assessed voter preferences “if elections were held today”, the APL found a similar pattern.

“Respondents were asked who they would vote for if elections were held today, and the same pattern emerged: Hon. Johnson Asiedu Nketia secured 32.7%, while Hon. Julius Debrah obtained 30.9%,” the report stated.

“The consistency between general support and immediate voting intention suggests that voter preferences are firm and well-defined, with little evidence of volatility or swing.”

It concluded that the race remains closely contested, with both candidates maintaining stable constituencies but failing to expand significantly beyond them.

“This reinforces the conclusion that no candidate currently commands a winning majority,” the report added.

Meanwhile, other contenders, including Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu and Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson, are competing in what analysts describe as a second tier of the race.

Haruna Iddrisu polled 17.9%, while Ato Forson secured 13.1%.

Vice President Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang followed with 3.6%, while Foreign Affairs Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa polled 1.0%. Other unnamed candidates collectively accounted for 2.5% of responses.