Fitch Ratings has disclosed in a report that sustained high energy prices, tighter financial conditions and lower global growth would affect multiple issuers if the Iran conflict continues unabated until end of 2Q26.

In “Global Cross-Sector Analysis of Iran War Adverse Risk Scenario", Fitch analysed global exposures across its rated portfolios to assess the potential effects on issuers’ Standalone Credit Profiles, or Viability Ratings (VRs) for banks, under such an adverse scenario, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed until June.

The effects on Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) if such a scenario were realised would also be influenced by other factors, notably the potential for ratings to benefit from support, for example, from parent entities or governments.

Fitch assessed material threats to ratings under the scenario in a number of sectors. Most of these are sectors in the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including hotels and restaurants, homebuilders, airlines and diversified industrials, reflecting the fact that the region is the most directly affected by the conflict.

“Turbulence in energy markets is a key vector for potential rating effects under the adverse scenario. We see chemicals sector issuers’ credit profiles facing material threats in the GCC, Europe and APAC, given their vulnerability to higher feedstock costs, demand destruction and supply chain disruption, though North American chemicals producers are less exposed”, it said.

“We also see material threats to APAC refiners, which are heavily reliant on oil from the Gulf. Issuers in some sectors, such as North American oil and gas, could benefit from the market disruption”, it added.
It concluded that the destructive effects of the adverse scenario for global demand are another important channel for potential rating implications.