Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is at risk of seeing its cocoa export earnings crash below the $2 billion mark in 2024—the lowest since 2010.

Despite strong cocoa futures due to supply restrictions during the 2023/2024 season, analysis of Bank of Ghana data by the JoyNews Research Desk reveals that the country’s once-reliable cocoa industry, a backbone of its economy, is on track to bring in its weakest export earnings in over a decade.

Ghana’s cocoa revenues, which peaked at $2.87 billion in 2011, have fallen steadily to $2.12 billion in 2023, representing a cumulative 26% decline. This translates to an average annual drop of 2% over the last decade.

With projected 2024 cocoa export earnings expected to dip below the critical $2 billion threshold, the ongoing decline is anticipated to put further pressure on the Ghanaian cedi, worsening the country’s fiscal challenges.

Several factors are crippling Ghana’s cocoa production, including illegal mining (galamsey), erratic weather patterns, crop diseases, and rampant smuggling.

These issues have severely undermined the nation’s ability to capitalize on rising global cocoa prices, making it difficult to secure favorable cocoa-syndicated loans, a critical source of foreign exchange that has historically helped stabilize the cedi.

Comparative analysis of earnings as of August 2024 suggests that reaching $2 billion by the end of the fiscal year will be challenging. By August, cocoa export earnings stood at just $917.8 million, marking the lowest in six years for the same period.

This is a sharp drop from the $1.7 billion average for the first eight months of the year since 2019. In fact, the current cumulative inflows from cocoa exports are $782 million below the five-year average and 43% lower than what was recorded in the same period in 2023, signaling a deepening crisis in the sector.