The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting a decline in Ghana’s debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio from 92.4% in 2022 to 84.9% in 2023.

According to its October 2023 Fiscal Monitor, the country’s total debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall consistently in the next five years.

In 2024, the debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated at 81.5%, whilst that of 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028 are pegged at 78.8%, 75.8%, 72.8% and 70.0%.

This will follow the expected external debt restructuring where the country’s debt is expected to go down.

For now, it is unclear how much the country saved from the domestic debt restructuring.

Revenue-to-GDP ratio to exceed 16% in next five years

The Fund is also projecting Ghana’s revenue-to-GDP ratio to increase consistently up till 2028.

In 2023, it is projecting a government revenue-to-GDP ratio of 15.7%, a slight drop from the 15.8% recorded in 2022.

In 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028, the revenue-to-GDP ratio is estimated at 16.6%, 17.3%, 18.2%, 18.2% and 18.1% respectively. This will be a vast improvement compared to the rates registered during the last 10 years.  

In 2023 and 2024, the country’s revenue-to-GDP ratio will however fall to 16% and 16.2% respectively.

Expenditure to remain within 20-21% bracket

Meanwhile, the expenditure-to-GDP ratio will fall from 27% in 2022 to 20.3% in 2023.

In 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028, the expenditure-to-GDP ratio is projected at 20.7%, 20.8%, 21.2%, 20.8% and 20.9% respectively.

Ghana’s public debt up ¢6.3bn within 2 months to reach ¢575.5bn in June 2023

Ghana’s public debt went up by about ¢6.3 billion between April and June 2023 to reach ¢575.5 billion in June 2023, data from the Bank of Ghana has revealed.

This was equivalent to $52.3 billion, approximately 71.9% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The marginal increase in the total debt of the country was due to the slight depreciation of the cedi to the dollar during the period.

According to the September 2023 Summary of Economic and Financial Data, the debt stock stood at ¢473.2 billion in December 2022, approximately 77.5% of GDP. It then went up to ¢547.8 billion ($50.7 billion) at the end of January 2023 and subsequently to ¢564.1 billion ($51.2 billion) and ¢569.5 billion ($51.7 billion) in February 2023 and March 2023 respectively.