A national opinion poll by Global InfoAnalytics shows that 55 per cent of voters do not believe that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) can break the eight (‘8’) in the 2024 presidential elections.

It however said 27 per cent of voters believed that the NPP could break the ‘8’ with 18 per cent not having an opinion as to whether voters believe the NPP will break the eight (8).

“Only Eastern and Ashanti regions with a majority of 47 per cent and 46 per cent believe the NPP will break the eight,” the results revealed.  It said the poll also showed that only 60 per cent of voters who voted for President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo in the 2020 election intend to vote for  the flag bearer of the NPP, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, while 19 per cent intend to vote for the flag bear of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), John Mahama, nine per cent, will vote for the founder and leader of the Movement for Change (M4C), Alan Kyerematen and two per cent for the leader of the New Force Movement (NFM), Nana Kwame Bediako.

It said 92 per cent of those who voted for Mr Mahama in the 2020 election intend to vote for him again, three per cent will vote for Dr Bawumia, two per cent for Mr Kyerematen and one per cent for Nana Bediako.

A sample size of 6,128 voters was interviewed of which 5,928 responded to questions on who they intended to vote for in the December 2024 election with a confidence level of 99 per cent and a margin of error of 1.66 per cent.

The Electoral Commission’s 2023 voters register was used as a sample frame while 30 per cent of constituencies from each region was randomly selected and allocated the regional quota based on total voters in each of the selected constituencies.

It explained that the presidential result was based on ‘likely voters’ model while the regional and constituency polls were based on all voters’ model which included responses of voters who had indicated that they would not vote.

It said the poll was cross-sectional and was carried out in 82 constituencies in all the 16 regions, adding that the polls were not carried out in churches, mosques, associations or in groups to avoid herding.

MPs rating

The polls showed that majority of voters, 35 per cent, rate the performance of their Members of Parliament (MPs) as average. Only 22 per cent rate performance of their MPs as very good/good, while 23 per cent rate their performance as poor/very poor with 11 per cent rating their MPs as excellent while 10 per cent did not have an opinion. 

The poll, which was conducted between March 22 and March 30 this year indicated that 47 per cent of voters voted for NPP candidates in the 2020 parliamentary elections, 43 per cent voted for NDC candidates. 

2024 parliamentary elections

With regard to the 2024 parliamentary elections, 48 per cent of voters now intend to vote for NDC candidates compared to 34 per cent for NPP, “suggesting that NDC is more than likely to form the majority in the next Parliament”.

It said the results showed the NPP making some grounds in the parliamentary elections following the selection of fresh faces during their primaries in January 2024. 

“In the January 2024 poll, the NDC led the generic parliamentary race by 52 per cent to 31 per cent, a 21 per cent lead which has now been cut to 14 per cent,” it said.

The poll revealed that on parliamentary constituency from the current poll, the NDC leads in 49 constituencies, NPP in 31 constituencies while there is a tie in two constituencies.