Scientific advisers to the government set out a “reasonable worst-case scenario” of 59,000 coronavirus deaths in the UK over the summer months, newly-released documents show.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) calculated the figure for “direct Covid-19 deaths” in hospitals, care homes and the community from 18 May to 6 September.
It was included in a paper titled “Covid-19 reasonable worst-case planning scenario” from 21 May which was published for the first time on Friday.
SAGE also said in the document that relaxing lockdown restrictions “could easily lead to an R of approximately 1.5-1.7”.
“Enough is enough.” @GabrielScally and #IndependentSAGE get tough on the government, and issue an emergency plan to prevent the country from becoming overwhelmed with the coronavirus. pic.twitter.com/hq3qoaaMs6— Independent SAGE (@IndependentSage) October 16, 2020
According to government data, there were 6,476 deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test between 18 May and 6 September.
The number of people who died with coronavirus mentioned in their death certificate was 9,524 over the same period, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In its May document, SAGE noted that its calculations were “scenarios, not predictions” and they were “subject to significant uncertainty”.
“These outputs should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather scenarios to inform planning at the time,” the government said.
“Reasonable worst-case scenarios are considered for planning to ensure that we are able to respond to a range of scenarios.”
Under the reasonable worst-case scenario, SAGE said there could be 130,000 people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 from 18 May to 6 September, with 19,000 patients requiring intensive care treatment over the same period.
It also set out a breakdown of Covid-19 deaths in each UK nation under the reasonable worst-case scenario, with 53,000 in England, 3,500 in Scotland, 1,300 in Wales and 1,400 in Northern Ireland.
SAGE calculated the figures using a scenario in which the easing of restrictions from 1 June would lead to an increase in the R number to 1.7 for four weeks.
The whole Labour movement should unite behind Independent Sage’s Emergency Six Week Plan to fight Coronavirus. https://t.co/VUMM9e2ct3— Richard Burgon MP (@RichardBurgon) October 16, 2020
Under the scenario, restrictions would then be reimposed, reducing the R number to 0.7, before being relaxed again with the R number returning to around 1.
In reality, the R number has not been 1.7 since the first lockdown eased and has only risen substantially above 1 in the last month.
In the May document, SAGE said its members agreed that “several different combinations of factors as part of relaxation of behavioural and social interventions could easily lead to an R of approximately 1.5-1.7”.
“This could be any mix of non-essential retail and more people returning to work, or minimal school reopening with extensive increase in leisure contacts,” it added.
- One feared dead, several others injured after accident at Legon underpass
- Citi FM journalist, Caleb Kudah allegedly picked up by National Security operatives
- Fire guts new Kejetia Market
- Ghana drops to 95th in 2021 World Happiness ranking
- Citi FM journalist, Caleb Kudah released from National Security custody
- Chinua Achebe’s ‘Things Fall Apart’, ‘No Longer at Ease’ and ‘Arrow of God’ are being adapted for television
- Cape Coast airport to be completed before end of second term – Transport Minister assures
- Wesley Girls: Aside ban on fasting Muslims aren’t allowed to observe Salat – Old student
- Our scholars in Cuba are broke because they insist on table-top payment – GNPC Foundation
- Don’t shake your car when fueling – Transport Consultant
Extraordinary problems require extraordinary measures – Lands Minister justifies burning of excavators
Government’s fight against galamsey camouflage – PPP
Court remands 32 alleged national security operatives accused of mining
Kenyan MPs summoned over bribery claims
#FixTheCountry: Be measured in your expectations of Akufo-Addo due to Covid-19 – Chief of Staff
#FixTheCountry: Pay cut for political leaders will not achieve much – Afenyo-Markin
Kumawood stars grace Mercy Asiedu’s 50th birthday
MTN Ghana donates in support of Eid celebration in Western Region
Inflation rate drifts into single digit of 8.5 per cent in April
Church of Pentecost hands over fully furnished Ejura prison to state
Legatum Center for Development and Entrepreneurship launches inaugural Legatum Foundry Fellowship for entrepreneurs in Africa
Pregnancy should not be a hindrance to your dreams – Nana Adwoa Awindor
Over 90% of ‘rotten’ vehicles at National Security premises distributed – Former MASLOC boss
Muslims urged to support in raising funds for the vulnerable
Nsawam Adoagyiri MP donates 10 Pulse Oximeters to Nsawam government hospital