Ivory Coast's fast-growing mining sector is bracing for potential disruption ahead of a tense presidential vote on Saturday, with President Alassane Ouattara seeking a fourth term and key opposition figures disqualified.

Mining is a major part of efforts by Ouattara, an 83-year-old former IMF economist, to diversify the economy of the world's top cocoa producer.

Since he took power in 2011, gold output surged from around 10 metric tons in 2012 to over 58 tons in 2024, with a target of 100 tons by 2030.

Ivory Coast has a history of election violence. The 2010–2011 war that brought Ouattara to power killed over 3,000 people, while clashes connected to the 2020 election left at least 85 dead.

MINERS STOCKPILING SUPPLIES, RELOCATING STAFF

Pre-election demonstrations have taken place in multiple locations this month, and police said on October 14 that one person was killed after being hit by a projectile during opposition protests in which hundreds were arrested.

Fearing unrest, miners are stockpiling fuel, cyanide, caustic soda and explosives, and relocating staff closer to sites to safeguard operations, three industry sources said.

Supplies are being positioned at northern hubs like Korhogo and Odienne, with reserves outside mines being negotiated, two sources added.

As insecurity and regulatory crackdowns escalate across West Africa's Sahel region, Ivory Coast has emerged as a haven for mining investment, attracting majors like Barrick, Perseus, Endeavour, Fortuna, and Montage, backed by the Lundin Family Trust and Zijin.

New entrants like Resolute and China's Zhaojin-owned Tietto secured permits this year for gold, lithium, copper and cobalt.

That influx now faces a test.

Former President Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam, seen as the strongest challengers, have been excluded from Saturday's election.

"Contingency measures are being scaled up as visibility worsens," one senior industry source said.

"We're not saying the country is unsafe, but we've seen this before - same cause, same consequences."

The Mines Ministry and the Professional Group of Miners of Côte d'Ivoire, a lobby group, did not respond to requests for comment.

There is a "slight pause in deal scoping ahead of the vote, but no capital flight or repricing of risk," said Tiffany Wognaih of consulting firm J.S. Held. "Ivory Coast remains a stable anchor in Francophone West Africa."

Mike Kruiniger of research firm Fitch BMI said emergency measures made sense as unrest has previously reached mining zones.