Ghana’s debt sustainability challenges persisted and in several episodes intensified, particularly during periods without an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, a former First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Maxwell Opoku-Afari has disclosed.

According to him, despite repeated recourse to the Fund for “policy credibility” and for liquidity or solvency support, debt sustainability remained fragile.

“Notably, several key Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicators breached their respective thresholds over 2010–2022”, Dr. Opoku-Afari disclosed in a paper titled “How not to Miss a Crisis: Lessons from Ghana”.

His article mentioned that the present value (PV) of public debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which remained below the 55.0% threshold in the early 2010s, rose sharply after 2014 and persistently exceeded sustainable levels— reaching nearly 93% by 2022.

“During the 2015–2019 Fund programme, debt accumulation moderated, although the ratio remained above the benchmark”.

Similarly, the PV of external debt-to-GDP exceeded the 40% threshold from 2015 onward, reflecting in part the effect of exchange-rate depreciation on foreign-currency liabilities. The 2015–2019 Fund programme coincided with a modest reduction in this indicator, but it rose again during the COVID-19 period.

Dr. Opoku-Afari pointed out that subsequent debt restructuring reduced the foreign-debt burden and improved this metric. “Over the full period, however, the PV of external debt-to-exports remained below the 180 per cent benchmark”.

Again, liquidity indicators also weakened, whilst debt service-to-exports exceeded the 15% threshold from 2015, while debt service-to-revenue breached the same benchmark as early as 2013 and rose to more than 40% of government revenues by 2022.

Taken together, the former First Deputy Governor said these breaches point to systemic fiscal fragility, with solvency and liquidity risks reinforcing each other and ultimately contributing to debt distress and the need for restructuring.

In 2022, Ghana defaulted on its debt obligations, compelling the country to seek  IMF support. This triggered the Economic Credit Facility (ECF) programme from the Fund.