The Russia-Ukraine impasse

As one of the world's superpowers (Russia) launches war on Ukraine, a humanitarian crisis unfolds before our eyes. In terms of consequences, what began as a standoff between two neighboring countries with same genealogy has now spread beyond their borders.

The standoff between Russia and Ukraine is influencing the world consciousness in a variety of ways, including militarily, economically, and environmentally. Some countries, such as Germany, are increasing their military budgets. Environmentalists are concerned about the war's influence on climate change goals. Experts have warned of fuel price hikes and inflationary shocks in the global economy. Above all, there have been fears of a nuclear holocaust as Putin prepares to deploy his Nuclear Deterrence Forces in response to any threat of Western military action. 

The West has imposed numerous sanctions on Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. Despite the restrictions, Russia continues to shell major Ukrainian cities, leading many to question whether the sanctions are sufficient to stop Putin. It does appear that a section of the public are dissatisfied with the actions taken against Russia thus far. Even the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Project has not worked as a deterrent. Some describe it as only a cosmetic sanction.  

With each cruise missile strike on Ukrainian cities, public outrage grows, and more sanctions are demanded. The necessity to cut the EU and the US off from Russia's gas and oil supply is at the top of these popular demands.

Some believe that this significant step will send a strong message to Putin, and that it will be the final straw that breaks the camel's back. However, this will come at a high cost to various economies, particularly the EU. Russia, behind the United States and Saudi Arabia, is the world's third-largest oil producer (12%). It is also the world's second-largest gas producer (17 percent), trailing only the United States. A significant portion of Russia's energy supplies drive Europe's economies, with Germany—the continent's largest economy—leading the way. 

Future of fossil fuels

Calls for the West to cut off Russia's fossil fuel supply, or rather threats from Russia to shut off its supply to major European countries, have sent shivers down the spine of the EU. As a result, leaders are looking for alternatives. Some people, particularly climate doubters, have begun to advocate for the reopening of domestic fossil fuel plants that have been shut down in the past.

Despite the fact that the Biden administration cancelled its license because of strong climate activism in the United States, I have seen one expert on Twitter, for example, make a U-turn and urge the Keystone Pipeline Project to be operationalised if it means saving Ukrainian lives. 

"Every barrel of Russian oil and every cubic meter of Russian gas is now full with the blood of Ukrainians," a Ukrainian climate expert has stated emphatically. Perhaps, stopping Russia's fossil fuel supplies (in the aim of deterring Putin) is therefore necessary to save Ukrainian lives. These demands have also raised concerns that, in the face of Europe's humanitarian crisis, climate ambitions may take a back seat to other issues. 

On a more positive note, key figures such as Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission and Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom have underlined the need to accelerate the deployment of green energy technologies. As a result of the Russia-Ukraine impasse, efforts to transition Europe's economy away from fossil fuel-based systems toward clean alternatives have intensified—at least in the long-term. Perhaps more than ever before, Europe is being compelled to pursue renewable energy sovereignty. 

The question is, can one of the world's largest crude oil exporters (Russia) be successfully shut off from its key European market in the long-term? If this is the case, what does this mean for Africa's oil exporting countries, such as Ghana, in the future climate regime? This is maybe a question that necessitates policy responses. I am confident that Ghana's government is already aware of the challenges ahead. I will be astonished, however, if the “signs” in current events have not now awakened our conscience to the looming future that awaits us if we do not plan properly and extensively for it. 

 Technically, a shift toward renewables by major players in the global economy may have both desirable and undesirable impacts on developing countries that are confronted by basic development challenges like poverty. This is due to stranded assets such as fossil fuel resource reserves (unburnable carbon), capital, or industries that are either lost or underutilised because of unanticipated changes. For Ghana, this could result in the shrinkage of direct revenues from fossil fuels, as well as rippling effects on the power and energy-intensive industries that are dependent on fossil fuels, if little or nothing is done.  

Without doubt, this is why, as part of climate agreements, major oil-exporting developing countries seek compensation for predicted economic losses due to policies that threaten to reduce their oil exports. A shift to renewables, therefore, has both the potential to alleviate poverty and undermine economic stability, depending on the existing socio-economic factors in any country.

For instance, socioeconomic vulnerabilities (e.g., weak institutional environments) will make it harder to adjust to global policy changes. Awakened by signs in the current events in Europe, the Government of Ghana must build the necessary enablers that will ensure that, even when we are thrown to the wolves in the unforeseen future, we will emerge as the park's leader. 

The Tribe of Issachar

“1 Chronicles 12:32”

“From the tribe of Issachar, there were 200 leaders of the tribe with their relatives. All these men understood the signs of the times and knew the best course for Israel to take”. 

How does the tribe of Issachar fit into this discourse? Well, bible scholars interpret the expression “understood the signs of the times” differently; however, I will go with the interpretation that fits my message. Thus, the men of Issachar were depicted as politically astute leaders, who knew how to use current events to their own advantage.

The message is clear, if we have politically astute leaders like the tribe of Issachar, the signs in the current event in Europe and its accompanying economic implications will warn us about what the future holds, and hence stir up our political will to mobilise our best policy experts to plan for today and the future of fossil fuels.  

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Adjaison Desmond is a MPhil Climate Change and Sustainable Development student at the University of Ghana Center for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies.

Email: Dadjaison93@yahoo.com