Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves and inflation outlook face renewed pressure following rising global energy prices triggered by the escalating Middle East conflict, Dr Johnson Asiama, Governor of the Bank of Ghana, has warned.

Opening the 130th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Accra on Monday, he said although the economy remained resilient, inflation had recorded its first increase since December 2025.

Dr Asiama attributed the development to a “dual channel inflation risk” arising from domestic energy supply disruptions and external commodity price pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.

“A number of risks in the horizon that I need to mention; first the protracted Middle East conflict and sustained energy price innovation, the convergence of domestic energy supply disruptions, an external cost push pressures,” he said.

Dr Asiama said the second risk related to current account and reserve vulnerabilities through external revenue compression and the domestic power crisis, which continued to elevate business costs and consumer inflation expectations despite signs of improvement.

“These are all risks which if not addressed will dislodge inflation expectations before they are effectively anchored. These risks will be central to the discussions this week,” he noted.

He said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had triggered a sustained increase in global crude oil prices, with direct effects on fuel costs, transport fares, import bills and consumer prices.

Dr Asiama said the International Monetary Fund had revised its 2026 global growth projection downward to 3.1 per cent from 3.3 per cent due to adverse demand and supply effects from the conflict.

On the domestic economy, he said Ghana’s first quarter 2026 current account surplus exceeded the corresponding 2025 figure by US$652 million, reflecting continued resilience.

However, he cautioned that sustained energy price inflation could quickly erode those gains as the country navigated a more difficult external environment.

Dr Asiama said the MPC would assess whether to realign the interest rate structure to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored and evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in supporting lending conditions and credit growth.

He stressed the need for a strong banking sector to absorb shocks and support economic expansion through increased credit delivery.

“Looking forward colleagues, the economy will need a strong banking sector. It will also need steps to ensure that the financial stability concerns are addressed and that the banking system is made to deliver on credit expansion,” Governor Asiama said.

The MPC is expected to announce its policy rate decision on Wednesday as markets monitor developments following the end of Ghana’s IMF-supported US$3 billion programme.

At the conclusion of the 129th MPC meeting held from March 16 to 18, 2026, the Bank of Ghana reduced the policy rate by 150 basis points from 15.5 per cent to 14 per cent to support economic recovery and ease monetary conditions.