IC Insights expects the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana to retain the policy rate at 14% during the September meeting.

According to the market research firm, the real policy rate of 9.0% suggests room for a modest cut in the policy rate if the external risk events were less volatile.

However, it believes the MPC would opt to preserve the policy headroom to accommodate any unexpected spike in inflation without a need for near-term hike.

“We, however, believe the 91-day yield has reached a trough and will require upward repricing to restore positive real yield”, it explained.

The Bank of Ghana maintained its policy rate at 14% at the last meeting in July 2026, citing rising external risks to inflation despite continued strength in the domestic economy.

The Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Asiama who chaired the Committee said recent inflation developments remain broadly in line with its forecasts, although headline inflation increased in June due mainly to temporary factors.

According to the MPC, inflation has edged closer to the lower bound of the Bank's medium-term target range, driven largely by base effects. While inflation expectations and core inflation have risen, they remain broadly anchored within the target band.

A sustained policy rate of 14.0% will mean the cost of credit will not change much for the next two and half months.