Maverick Research’s retail audit data for the first half of 2026 showed that Ghana delivered the strongest performance, with volumes up 8.9% and value growing 15.6%.

Côte d’Ivoire recorded approximately 3% volume growth and 2% value growth, while Cameroon posted 2.7% volume growth and 5.2% value growth.

According to the report, the figures tell a broader story, as Ghana has shifted decisively into consumer-led recovery.

Also, Côte d’Ivoire’s growth is being unlocked by lower prices and improved affordability. Similarly, Cameroon is recovering more gradually, with value rising faster than consumption.

Ghana Moves from Inflation-led to Consumer-led growth

The research stated that Ghana was the clear outperformer. “The combination of 8.9% volume growth and 15.6% value growth indicate that consumers were not simply paying more—they were buying more”.

It added that easing inflation, a stronger cedi and improving purchasing power helped households rebuild their baskets, highlighting that the food’s share of Fast Moving Consumer Good (FMCG) volume increased from 32.2% to 34.2%, led by essential categories such as edible oil, tomato paste, milk, noodles and food seasonings.

“Affordability supported the recovery. Average prices per kilogram declined by 8% for edible oil and 6% for pasta. Non-alcoholic beverages also remained resilient, while Home and Personal Care recovered less evenly as shoppers continued to prioritise necessities over discretionary products”.

The business implication of the research is straightforward.

Ghana offered the region’s strongest near-term growth opportunity, but consumers remain price-conscious. Brands, therefore, should use the improving economy to expand distribution and volumes—not as permission to raise prices indiscriminately.

Oil is Bellwether for Second-Half of 2026

According to the report, oil may be the most important external variable for West African FMCG through the remainder of 2026.

Brent crude was trading near $87 per barrel in mid-August, despite weakening global demand forecasts. Supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions continued to create significant volatility.

“Ghana and Cameroon are oil producers, so higher prices can support export earnings and government revenues. Yet consumers may still face higher transport and shelf prices if those gains are not transmitted through stable currencies and lower domestic energy costs. Côte d’Ivoire faces a more direct inflation risk. Sustained high oil prices could reverse some of the affordability gains that drove its first-half volume growth”.

For FMCG companies, Maverick Research said the practical response is to shorten pricing cycles, improve route efficiency and avoid passing temporary cost spikes immediately to consumers.

Cocoa and Gold will Shape Purchasing Power

The report revealed that cocoa remains critical to Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. “International prices have corrected sharply from their previous highs, with the International Cocoa Organization benchmark at approximately $4,173 per tonne on August 12, 2026”.

“Lower cocoa prices could eventually reduce costs for chocolate, biscuits and beverages. But they also threaten export earnings and household incomes in cocoa-growing communities”.

According to Maverick Research, this may create two-speed consumer markets: stronger spending in Accra and Abidjan, but weaker purchasing power in cocoa-producing regions. National FMCG growth figures should therefore not be treated as evidence of uniform regional recovery.

It added that gold gives Ghana an important buffer. “Elevated gold prices support export receipts, foreign-exchange reserves and cedi stability. A stable cedi would help contain imported inflation and sustain consumer recovery. However, the IMF has warned that Ghana’s growing dependence on gold also increases its exposure to a future price correction”.

What Winning will Require

Maverick Research concluded that the first half of 2026 confirms that West Africa’s FMCG recovery is real—but conditional.

Therefore, Ghana should remain the strongest market if the cedi stays stable and inflation continues to ease. Côte d’Ivoire can also build on its volume recovery if energy costs remain contained and cocoa incomes hold.

Ita added that the brands that win the remainder of 2026 will not simply follow the macroeconomic recovery, but will convert it into better availability, sharper pricing and stronger execution—outlet by outlet.