The World Bank’s latest Africa’s Pulse report has projects a grim future for Nigeria, with poverty expected to rise by 3.6 percentage points by 2027.

Released during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, the report cites Nigeria’s reliance on oil, economic fragility, and governance challenges as key drivers.

It highlights the country’s structural economic weaknesses, dependence on oil revenues, and national fragility as key barriers to meaningful poverty reduction.

“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries, including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated.

Despite recent growth in Nigeria’s non-oil sector during the last quarter of 2024, the World Bank warns that this progress is unlikely to translate into widespread poverty alleviation due to ongoing fiscal and institutional challenges.

The report emphasizes that Sub-Saharan Africa remains the world’s poorest region, with an overwhelming 80% of the globe’s 695 million extreme poor residing there in 2024.

Within the region, half of the 560 million extremely poor people were located in just four countries, including Nigeria.

In stark contrast, South Asia accounted for 8% of the world’s extremely poor population, East Asia and the Pacific 2%, the Middle East and North Africa 5%, and Latin America and the Caribbean 3%.

The World Bank attributes the rising poverty in Nigeria and similar economies to weakening oil prices and fragile governance structures, noting: “This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates, averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries.”

Meanwhile, non-resource-rich countries in Africa are experiencing stronger economic growth and faster poverty reduction, buoyed by high agricultural commodity prices and more resilient fiscal policies.

To reverse Nigeria’s downward poverty trend, the World Bank recommends reforms that prioritize inclusive economic growth and stronger public financial management.

It calls on the government to focus on “improving fiscal management and building a stronger fiscal contract with citizens to promote inclusive economic development and long-term poverty alleviation.”