Ghana’s economy is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2026, reflecting cautious optimism following a remarkable turnaround in 2025, according to the latest macroeconomic outlook by Emerging Markets Advisory.

Analysts attribute the momentum to fiscal consolidation under the IMF Extended Credit Facility, commodity windfalls, and a stable parliamentary majority providing policy continuity.

The report notes that Ghana recorded significant improvements in living standards last year.

“The cedi posted its first annual gain against the dollar since 1994, inflation dropped from 23.8% to 5.4%, and over 950,000 people exited multidimensional poverty between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025,” the advisory said.

The positive sentiment is bolstered by higher commodity prices, particularly gold and cocoa, which contributed significantly to export earnings.

However, analysts caution that sustaining growth beyond the baseline scenario requires careful policy execution. The advisory warned that “if old patterns reassert themselves, policy drift, expenditure blowouts, and external shocks could cause growth to slip to 4.1%.”

Key sectors such as services, manufacturing, and agriculture are expected to drive the baseline growth, while the oil and gas sector may contract due to declining output in mature fields.

Fiscal prudence remains central to maintaining the momentum. EM Advisory highlights that the government’s primary balance is projected at -1.4% of GDP on a cash basis, reflecting disciplined expenditure management.

“The fundamental question for 2026 is whether Ghana can maintain fiscal discipline without the IMF looking over its shoulder,” the report added.

Looking ahead, the advisory underscores the need for structural reforms, including rationalising the wage bill, improving civil service productivity, and broadening the tax base.

“With nearly three years before the next election, there is political space for difficult reforms. The current administration has the opportunity to break the boom-and-bust cycle that has historically plagued Ghana,” it concluded.