The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is warning Ghana of elevated gross financing needs—peaking above 16% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2028—and sizeable refinancing pressures from the concentration of Domestic Debt Exchange Programme-related maturities in 2027–28.

According to its Country Report on Ghana, domestic debt vulnerabilities remain elevated, given the heavy reliance on treasury bills and large rollover needs in 2027-28.

It added that the heavy reliance on short-term domestic instruments and financial institutions’ large exposure to government securities further amplify risks, as the domestic market’s capacity to absorb additional issuance may be limited.

“A carefully calibrated debt management strategy aimed at a lengthening of maturities through a gradual scaling up of Treasury-bond issuance would help mitigate rollover risks. With IMF TA [technical advice] support, a strategy has been adopted to manage the 2027-28 maturity concentration, combining partial redemptions via sinking funds (funded by earmarking 7.0% of non-oil tax revenue and T‑bond issuance), buybacks, and rollover through T‑bills [treasury bills)”, it stated.

Monitor Consistency with DSA Parameters

It continued that non-resident participation in the domestic treasury bond market should be closely monitored to ensure consistency with DSA parameters.

“Non-resident participation in the bond market is not directly restricted. While non-resident participation can help deepen the market and support financing, it also introduces risks, given secondary-market flows’ potential impact on debt sustainability and financial stability through potential capital flow volatility and exchange rate pressures”.

It added that a close and continuous monitoring of non-resident participation in primary and secondary domestic debt markets will be essential, with readiness to adjust external borrowing plans if inflows exceed prudent levels.

It also called for the strengthening of public debt reporting standards, adding, expanding debt coverage to capture quasi-fiscal activities and improving inter-agency coordination will strengthen risk monitoring and support more informed borrowing decisions.

Public debt reporting standards should be strengthened by aligning compilation and dissemination with GFSM 2014 and broadening coverage to capture quasi-fiscal activities.