A new nationwide survey of constituency executives within the National Democratic Congress (NDC) suggests the party’s 2028 presidential race is too close to call, with Johnson Asiedu Nketia and Julius Debrah emerging as the two leading contenders in a tightly contested early race.

The poll, conducted by Africa Policy Lens and led by Dr Hayford M. Ayerakwa between April 17 and 19, sampled 2,408 constituency executives across all 276 constituencies using a structured SMS-based system.

According to the findings, Mr Asiedu Nketia polled 31.9%, narrowly ahead of Mr Debrah on 30.1%, leaving a slim gap of 1.8 percentage points.

When respondents were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, the numbers remained similarly close. Mr Asiedu Nketia rose slightly to 32.7%, while Mr Debrah followed at 30.9%.

The results point to an early contest with no clear frontrunner, despite the race still being in its formative stages.

The survey also identified a second tier of possible contenders. Cassiel Ato Forson was named by 27.1% of respondents as the closest challenger, while Haruna Iddrisu also featured among names mentioned by party executives.

Beyond personalities, the report sought to understand what drives support among delegates.

Leadership experience and track record ranked highest, cited by 66.1% of respondents. Integrity and honesty followed at 56.8%, while ability to unite the party (46.8%), grassroots appeal (46.5%) and charisma (43.9%) were also seen as key factors.

Policy proposals ranked much lower at 27.9%, suggesting delegates may prioritise electability, party cohesion and leadership image over manifesto promises.

The findings come at a time when internal succession discussions are beginning quietly within the NDC, despite the next presidential election still two years away.

With no candidate yet establishing a commanding lead, party analysts say the eventual outcome may depend on coalition-building, endorsements and the ability to appeal across the party’s grassroots structures.