A fresh March 2026 tracking analysis by GlobalInfo Analytics is quietly redrawing the contours of the country’s 2028 presidential race, with a sharpened focus on a potential face-off between the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) flagbearer, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and the National Democratic Congress's (NDC) National Chairman, Johnson Asiedu Nketia.

The data suggests a politically charged equilibrium forming beneath the surface, one where traditional party loyalties remain intact, but the expanding electorate, particularly 2024 non-voters, introduces subtle but consequential shifts in momentum.

Baseline voter dynamics: party loyalty still decisive

According to the polls, among core party supporters, the numbers remain emphatically structured in favour of discipline and loyalty.

Within NPP-aligned voters who did not participate in the 2024 elections, Dr Bawumia maintains a commanding lead, securing 83% support, compared to just 8% for Asiedu Nketia.

On the NDC side, Asiedu Nketia dominates decisively with 74%, while Dr Bawumia attracts 10%, a figure Global Info Analytics describes as “symbolic rather than competitive”.

These figures reinforce a familiar electoral architecture: strong internal cohesion within both major parties, with minimal cross-party leakage at the core level.

The floating voter battleground: where the race tightens

The most consequential movement emerges within the floating voter segment, where political loyalty is fluid and electoral outcomes are often decided.

In this group:

• Asiedu Nketia: 38%
• Dr Bawumia: 36%
• Alan Kyerematen: 10%
• Nana Kwame Bediako: 8%
• Others: 8%

The margin, just 2 percentage points, places both frontrunners in a statistical near-deadlock, with neither establishing decisive dominance.

Analysts describe this bloc as the “strategic fulcrum” of the 2028 contest, where micro-shifts in perception, turnout, and campaign messaging could redefine the electoral balance.

Impact of 2024 non-voters: a subtle but strategic reshaping

When voters who abstained in the 2024 elections are incorporated into the analysis, the race takes on a more complex geometry.

In a direct Asiedu Nketia–Bawumia contest among this expanded electorate:

• Asiedu Nketia: 39%
• Dr Bawumia: 35%
• Alan Kyerematen: 10%
• Nana Kwame Bediako: 9%
• Others: 7%

This marks a marginal but symbolically important lead for Asiedu Nketia, suggesting that newly activated voters lean slightly towards the opposition in this matchup.

However, the advantage is narrow enough to remain within the margin of statistical volatility.

Without new voters, Bawumia maintains a structural edge

When 2024 non-voters are excluded, the underlying structure shifts in favour of the NPP candidate.

In that scenario, Dr Bawumia leads Asiedu Nketia among floating voters by approximately 5 percentage points, indicating that the inclusion of new voters compresses his advantage.

Among core party voters, the pattern remains unchanged: overwhelming dominance within respective political bases.

Strategic interpretation: a race of narrow margins and expanding uncertainty

The overarching insight from the GlobalInfo Analytics data is not dominance, but compression.

Asiedu Nketia’s performance suggests a candidate with strong mobilisation capacity within the NDC base and growing competitiveness among undecided voters. Dr Bawumia, meanwhile, retains structural strength within the NPP ecosystem but faces a narrowing differential when the electorate expands beyond traditional voters.

The research concludes that the entry of previously inactive voters does not destabilise the race in dramatic fashion, but it does tighten the margins at precisely the points where elections are decided.

In practical terms, the 2028 contest between Asiedu Nketia and Dr Bawumia is shaping into a finely balanced political equation, where loyalty defines the foundation, but turnout and persuasion among the floating electorate determine the final arithmetic.

As the electoral horizon slowly sharpens, the data offers a quiet but firm message: Ghana’s next presidential contest may not be won by sweeping waves, but by the delicate accumulation of marginal gains in an increasingly contested democratic marketplace.

Below is the entire findings;