A leading political pollster has forecast a decisive win for Hajia Amina Adam in the upcoming National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primary for Ayawaso East, with her closest rival projected to trail significantly.

Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has released polling data indicating that Hajia Amina Adam, the widow of the late MP Mahama Naser Toure, commands approximately 54% support among delegates ahead of the Saturday, February 7 election.

Her main contender, Baba Jamal, is projected to secure no more than 38% of the vote.

“Based on the data, a dramatic late shift in voter preference is highly improbable,” stated Mr. Dankwah.

He emphasised that the forecast carries a margin of error of 3.2%, which still places Hajia Amina Adam comfortably ahead even at the most conservative estimate.

The pollster also addressed internal party narratives surrounding the widow’s candidacy. Survey results revealed that 66% of general NDC voters in the constituency, and 58% of delegates, disagreed with the notion that it was wrong for Hajia Amina to contest.

“This suggests that a narrative being pushed by some is not resonating with the grassroots. I believe there was a miscalculation of the local dynamics in Ayawaso,” Mr Dankwah added, indicating that calls to dissuade her from running have found little traction.

The projection sets the stage for what analysts now expect to be a conclusive primary contest this Saturday, with Hajia Amina Adam positioned as the firm favourite to become the NDC’s parliamentary candidate for Ayawaso East.