Across Africa, governments and investors are accelerating plans to build or revamp refineries, gas processing plants, petrochemical complexes, pipelines and storage terminals to industrialise and cut imports of fuels and finished goods.

At this time, however, the continent lacks the skilled human capital required to operate, manage and sustain these facilities and deliver the anticipated business results over the long-term without relying heavily on expatriates.

Africa’s biggest risk in ensuring energy security is not funding, technology or natural resources. It is the absence of a structured pipeline of talent capable of running the continent’s industrial assets efficiently and profitably. As Africa develops its infrastructure, it must systematically develop the people who will run it successfully over the coming decades.

Human capital as an investment risk factor

Downstream projects are typically designed with investment horizons ranging from 10 to 20 years, and often longer. These assets require highly specialised skills across engineering, operations, safety management, environmental compliance and digital monitoring systems. However, the African professionals who will initially lead and implement such projects may retire or move on within a few years. Without structured succession planning and skills development, there is no guarantee that the next generation of critical African operations management professionals will possess the required expertise.

This challenge is particularly evident in the refining sector. Despite holding around eight per cent of global oil reserves, Africa remains heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products. Many refineries operate below global efficiency levels, with utilisation rates averaging roughly 40 per cent compared with more than 70 per cent globally. More refineries shut down in Africa for operational reasons than elsewhere.

While ageing infrastructure and financial constraints have remained key concerns, skill shortages across the operational workforce have been a silent killer. Refinery operations demand expertise in process optimisation, equipment reliability, safety management and complex digital control systems. When these capabilities are limited, plant efficiency declines and operational risks increase.

For investors, this creates uncertainty. Capital-intensive energy projects rely on stable operational capacity over decades. If investors cannot see evidence of a sustainable talent pipeline, the perceived risk of long-term investments rises significantly. In other words, human capital is not merely a workforce issue; it is an investment risk factor.

Lessons from the covid-19 pandemic and local capacity

The COVID-19 pandemic provided a demonstration of the risks associated with skills dependence. When international travel restrictions disrupted global supply chains and movement of technical experts, many energy projects across Africa slowed or halted. Facilities that relied heavily on expatriate engineers struggled to maintain operations.

Meanwhile, projects with stronger local participation and expertise proved more resilient. Operations where African engineers and technicians were deeply embedded in technical processes continued functioning more effectively despite the global disruption.

The continent still relies too heavily on expatriate quotas. While international knowledge transfer remains valuable, long-term sustainability requires the development of local professionals who understand both the technical systems and the regional operating environment.

For Africa, this is not simply a matter of workforce localisation. It is a strategic imperative in achieving economic sovereignty, energy security and industrial competitiveness.

Youthful population and the skills paradox

Africa’s great advantage is that nearly 60 per cent of its population is under the age of 25, representing the world’s largest emerging workforce. With proper training, this generation could form the backbone of the continent’s industrial transformation. The global energy transition is expected to create millions of new jobs in energy production, infrastructure development and digital energy management. Africa can capture a significant share of these opportunities if it aligns education systems with emerging industry needs. However, without deliberate investment in training and capacity building, this demographic advantage could be lost.

Despite Africa’s large and youthful population, companies across the continent consistently report difficulty finding skilled professionals in specialised technical fields. Several structural barriers explain this paradox.

First, academic training often fails to match industry needs, leaving many engineering graduates without practical experience in refinery operations, digital process controls, or industrial safety systems. Second, the sector faces a shortage of specialised operational profiles, particularly in areas such as advanced process control, equipment reliability, and plant turnaround planning. Third, brain drain continues to affect the energy sector, as skilled professionals migrate to other industries or regions offering more competitive opportunities.

Finally, lack of strong coordination between universities, industry, and government often leads to fragmented training initiatives that do not meet real labour market demands.

The result is a cycle in which companies struggle to recruit qualified staff, while graduates struggle to find employment in specialised technical roles. Breaking this cycle requires systemic collaboration rather than isolated training programmes.

Artificial intelligence and the future workforce

The rise of artificial intelligence and digital technologies adds a new dimension to Africa’s energy skills challenge. Modern energy infrastructure increasingly relies on digital monitoring systems, predictive maintenance algorithms and real-time data analytics. These technologies require professionals who can combine engineering knowledge with digital competencies.

AI can also support human capital development itself. Adaptive learning platforms can analyse individual performance and customise training pathways, while digital tools can map skill gaps across organisations and forecast future workforce needs.

However, AI also introduces new energy demands. Data centres, machine learning systems and digital infrastructure consume substantial electricity, contributing to rising carbon footprints.

This creates a new interdisciplinary challenge where energy professionals must understand both industrial systems and the digital technologies that increasingly shape them.

Training programmes must therefore integrate knowledge across energy engineering, data analytics and environmental sustainability.

ARDA’s role in driving skills development across Africa

Addressing Africa’s downstream skills gap requires sustained collaboration between industry, governments and academic institutions. The African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) has sought to advance this conversation at a continental level by promoting stronger human capital development across the sector.

Through industry dialogues, technical forums and engagement with policymakers, companies and universities, ARDA advocates closer alignment between academic training and the operational needs of the downstream petroleum industry. Its platforms – including technical workgroups, policy discussions and the annual ARDA Week conference – bring together regulators, operators and researchers to exchange knowledge on refining operations, fuel standards, supply chains and evolving energy transition priorities.

These initiatives, alongside programmes such as the ARDA Training School in Abidjan, form part of broader efforts across the sector to strengthen the technical capacity required to manage Africa’s expanding downstream infrastructure.

Oil companies, engineering firms and technology providers must collaborate with universities to design curricula aligned with operational realities. Structured rotations across engineering, technical services and field operations can expose trainees to real-world industrial environments, while advanced digital simulators allow operators to practice start-up procedures, shutdown scenarios and emergency responses without risk to physical infrastructure.

Rapid technological change requires ongoing professional development, rather than one-time certification.

There is also a need to promote recruitment & career development best practices for high-potential employees, including succession planning and dual-career paths to develop a pool of African technical & commercial subject matter experts (SMEs).

Investors should incorporate workforce development into project planning, ensuring long-term infrastructure investments include provisions for local talent development and knowledge transfer.

Corporate leaders must recognise that building internal talent pipelines is as critical as securing financing or technology partnerships. Companies that invest in structured mentorship and training programmes will gain a competitive advantage in operational performance and resilience.

Ultimately, the goal is to create a continent-wide network of technical excellence, capable of producing globally competitive professionals.

Without sustained investment in human capital, Africa risks building infrastructure that it cannot fully operate or expand. With the right training ecosystems, however, the continent can transform its demographic strength into a strategic advantage.

Industries do not drive people – people drive industries, and Africa’s industrial future depends on getting it right.

By : Anibor Kragha, Executive Secretary, African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA)